LeBron cracks the NBA's top-10 scoring list, sets sights on Kareem's record

With 20 third-quarter points against the Boston Celtics on Thursday, Cleveland Cavaliers superstar LeBron James moved within a handful of points of Hakeem Olajuwon for 10th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, but a sizable lead and a step off the gas pedal left him one point shy by game’s end.

So it was, then, that with a layup midway through the first quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday, James bumped The Dream’s 26,946 points from the top 10 at the age of 31 years and 311 days.

Even the lowest single-season scoring output of LeBron’s career — 1,654 points as a rookie — would easily move him past Elvin Hayes (27,313) and Moses Malone (27,409) for eighth on the list this season. And his most prolific scoring season — 2,478 as a 21-year-old in 2005-06 — would catch Shaquille O’Neal (28,596) at No. 7. By any definition, James is chasing the game’s immortals from here on out.

Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki is the only other active player in the top 10, and his 29,522 points sit in sixth place. From there, barring unforeseen circumstances, James will set his sights for:

 

5. Wilt Chamberlain (31,419)
4. Michael Jordan (32,292)
3. Kobe Bryant (33,643)
2. Karl Malone (36,928)
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387)

 

You may recognize some of those names. If you don’t, the rest of this exercise won’t interest you.

As James climbs the ladder, the biggest question is whether he can catch Abdul-Jabbar’s record. LeBron entered this season 11,554 points shy of Kareem, who retired after 20 seasons at age 41 in 1988-89. There has been no six-year stretch of LeBron’s career in which he has not eclipsed 11,554 points. If you believe he can maintain his level of play from the past 13 seasons for another six years, the answer is simple: LeBron will be the NBA all-time’s leading scorer at age 37 in the 2021-22 season.

For reference, James is the youngest player ever to reach 26,947 points, which he did by passing Olajuwon on Saturday night. Bryant and Chamberlain were 32 when they got there, and nobody else was younger than 34. Abdul-Jabbar was 34 years and 268 days old when he reached that mark.

Even if LeBron’s scoring production fades — as early indications in 2016-17 suggest it might in a year when a 20-10-10 still seems entirely possible — Abdul-Jabbar’s record remains in jeopardy. Prior to this season, LeBron suggested he could play 10 more years, since “that would give me a chance to play with my son or against my son.” And just last week, Cavs coach Tyronn Lue claimed doctors told James, “he had the body or the bones, the structure of a 19-year-old kid.” In other words, he is not your average 31-year-old. If you need further proof, check out his 2016 championship ring.

If he were to play another decade, LeBron’s 23 seasons would surpass the record held by Robert Parish, Kevin Willis and Kevin Garnett by two. And James would be 41, the same age as Abdul-Jabbar when Kareem hung up his sneakers. Assuming he misses, say, something like 15 games a season — even though he’s never missed more than 13 in an 82-game campaign — James would need to average 17.2 points per game for the next decade to catch Kareem. He is averaging 22.2 this season, his fewest since the 19.1 points per game he averaged as a rookie. This scenario also seems entirely plausible.

Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No. Probable? Maybe.

By this same mathematical projection of a hypothetical decline over the next decade, LeBron would finish his career in 2025-26 with something like 38,388 points, 10,106 rebounds, 9,746 assists, 2,370 steals and 1,106 blocks, which would also vault him into the all-time top 10 in both assists and steals as well. As it stands now, LeBron historically ranks 18th in assists and 24th in steals already. Abdul-Jabbar, Chamberlain, Moses and Karl Malone all rank top-10 in both points and rebounds, but no player in NBA history has ever cracked the top 10 in both points scored and created by assists.

If this were to be the case, there would be a rather easy path to calling LeBron the greatest statistical player in basketball history. And none of this includes the fact he needs only 416 more postseason points to surpass Michael Jordan as the most prolific playoff scorer ever. So, as James continues to chase “the ghost” of Jordan and his six NBA titles on his stated goal of becoming “the greatest of all time,” there are several more ghosts he will extinguish along the way. Tonight was Hakeem Olajuwon.