There is a growing sense among executives that the trade market is going to be active this offseason fueled by these factors:
1. Arguably the worst free-agent starting-pitching class ever is upon us. Rich Hill is the best starter available. He is a terrific craftsman. He also is 37 in March, has not made it through a full season as a starter since 2007, and no team can simply wave off concerns about blisters because he relies so much on his curveball, which creates intense friction on his fingers against the ball’s seams.
And the class goes down-Hill from there.
Thus, in the old game of supply-and-demand, if teams have anything from a good-to-great pitcher they are willing to trade, the time might never be better to maximize returns.
So, for example, do the White Sox finally blink and trade Chris Sale or Jose Quintana? Do the Giants create the salary space to address other needs (left field, bullpen) by at least seeing if there is a market for Jeff Samardzija? Do the Tigers believe this is the last best time to get a lot for Justin Verlander?
He turns 35 in February and has three years at $84 million remaining. He just led the AL in strikeouts and was second in ERA and innings. Win-now teams get in line.
2. New top baseball executives for the Diamondbacks and Twins are in place. Traditionally, new officials do not have ties to players brought in by old regimes and have more latitude in a honeymoon period to dispatch even big names.
So does new Arizona GM Mike Hazen have permission — if he thinks a larger rebuild is in order — to see what he can get for Zack Greinke or, more interestingly, Paul Goldschmidt? Does the Twins’ new baseball chief Derek Falvey capitalize on Brian Dozier’s best season and trade the second baseman now?
3. A greater attention than ever to run prevention exists — the Cubs can take a bow. Clubs are emphasizing defense hand-in-glove as a way to protect and bolster their pitching staff by recording more outs on balls in play.
The Cardinals, for example, are determined to address what was a terrible fielding group in 2016. To do that, would they consider moving on-base machine Matt Carpenter because, a) he could get them plenty back, and b) he does not play any position particularly well? It would be a hard sell. He is popular and on a team-friendly contract (three years at $39.5 million left). But he would get a larger return than other pieces the Cards may be willing to deal — such as Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong.
4. Teams need to capitalize on their window to win. We have seen clubs that believe their time is now act very aggressively in recent years — think the Cubs the past two years (Joe Maddon, Jon Lester, Jason Heyward, John Lackey, Ben Zobrist, Aroldis Chapman), the Mets at the past two trade deadlines (Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce) and even the small-market Indians at the last deadline (Andrew Miller).
No team wants to squander a championship core. The Astros now stand out in this way. They have a win-now positional group headed by Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel and George Springer. But they do not have the rotation to capitalize on that, especially with Dallas Keuchel taking two steps backward in 2016 and Lance McCullers Jr. being unable to stay healthy.
They badly need an ace. So, for example, do they use Bregman as the key piece to go after Sale (on a great contract the next three years) or to try to get a potential young ace such as Julio Urias (if the Dodgers lose Justin Turner to free agency, they could form an infield left side for years of Corey Seager and Bregman)?
5. Belt tightening in the AL Central. Tigers GM Alex Avila already has said his team wants to get younger and less expensive. The White Sox and Royals may follow the same avenue.
Detroit, in particular, has tried to win in 87-year-old owner Mike Ilitch’s lifetime, which has resulted in high payrolls and an aging roster. The White Sox have done a version of the same, trying to win a second time for 80-year-old owner Jerry Reinsdorf. They have ended with a mismatched roster and non-contender.
The Royals, conversely, won the AL pennant in 2014 and a championship in 2015. To try to keep the good times going, they took on a record payroll in 2016 only to fall to .500. They were trying to sustain winning while their key core guys were under control, but Wade Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all are free agents after next season. To regenerate to their next good team, the Royals might have to think about trading a few of them between now and July 31. Jon Heyman of FanRag reported Davis already is available.
Ian Kennedy, with four years left on his contract, might be the kind of inning eater that could be attractive in this starting pitching market.
The Tigers had a woeful free-agent binge last offseason (Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmermann, Mike Pelfrey and Mark Lowe). They would love to move those guys plus Anibal Sanchez. Good luck. Their moneyed players of value are Verlander and second baseman Ian Kinsler, and the Tigers will have to decide if they have the stomach to move one or both.
The White Sox have Sale and Quintana, but also useful bats Melky Cabrera and Todd Frazier entering their walk year, closer David Robertson with two years left on his contract and the kind of well-rounded (defense notably) outfielder in Adam Eaton whom the Cardinals and many other clubs would chase.
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