Nine home underdogs in position to wreak havoc on playoff picture

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (power sold separately at UConn, where one suicidal squirrel can take down the whole campus):

 

STRIKE A BLOW FROM BELOW?

 

Every current unbeaten will play its next game on the road, which means the potential for College Football Playoff tumult is strong. The Dash takes a look at the nine home underdogs in position to do some damage, and whether they can pull it off.

 

Florida State (1). Season in 10 words: All over the map, with significant time spent in Disappointmentville.

 

The Seminoles (5-2) staged a remarkable comeback to beat Mississippi, blocked an extra point to hold off Miami and handled decent South Florida and Wake Forest teams. But they also have a defense that surrendered 34 or more points in four of the first five games, including a school-record 63 allowed to Louisville in a blowout loss. Since then the points allowed is just 12.5. Florida State would need widespread chaos to have any shot at an Atlantic Coast Conference title and playoff shot, but the chance to jeopardize a rival’s season has to be enticing.

The target: Clemson (2). Tigers are unbeaten but often underwhelming, and they’re going to a place where they haven’t won in a decade. However, it could be argued they’ve been more focused on the road this year. In winning at Auburn, Georgia Tech and Boston College, Clemson committed just four turnovers, compared to 12 in four home games. If the Tigers win this one, they should breeze through the rest of the regular season.

 

The prediction: Florida State 28, Clemson 26. The Tigers’ 13-game ACC winning streak comes to an end.

 

Michigan State (3). Season in 10 words: Mark Dantonio simply cannot believe it has come to this.

A year after winning the Big Ten and making the playoff, the 2-5 Spartans are a disaster, taking a five-game losing streak up against a bitter rival that will be dead set on revenge after last year’s fluke-miracle result in Ann Arbor. This is the doomsday scenario Michigan State fans feared when Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh – but worse. At least they figured their team would be competitive as long as Dantonio was there. Instead, State has lost three Big Ten games by double digits. The last time the Spartans lost four conference games by double digits in a season was in 2006, and it got John L. Smith fired.

The target: Michigan (4). The Wolverines have been dominant. They also have had a very friendly schedule, with six home games and the only road test at inept Rutgers. This was supposed to be the first big road challenge, but it may not work out that way. The No. 2 pass defense in America may overwhelm a team struggling at the quarterback position.

 

The prediction: Michigan 28, Michigan State 9. The Spartans’ most inspired effort since the Notre Dame game still is nowhere near enough.

Will Clemson, Washington, Baylor and Michigan all survive their road tests this weekend? (AP)

Texas (5). Season in 10 words: Bad enough to get Charlie Strong fired in another month.

 

Texas has found ways to lose, just as it did the previous two seasons. Mostly it’s been defensive lapses, but some timely special-teams mistakes have contributed, too. It’s likely too late to save Strong’s job at this point, but scuttling Baylor’s bid for an undefeated season this Saturday would be a nice way to start a salvage operation for this season. Freshman quarterback Shane Buechele will have to solve a Baylor pass defense that leads the Big 12 – albeit against very soft competition to date.

The target: Baylor (6). The Bears aren’t quite as explosive as they were during the Art Briles days, but here’s something they’re doing better than under Briles: Baylor is the only team in America that hasn’t allowed a fourth-quarter point this season. The Bears’ two road games to date have been against Rice and Iowa State, so this should easily be the toughest atmosphere they’ve walked into in 2016. In theory. If Texas fans have given up already, or give up quickly in this game, it could be another milk run.

 

The prediction: Baylor 41, Texas 35. After a while, the close losses just sort of blend together.

 

Oklahoma State (7). Season in 10 words: They’re still mad about Central Michigan, and always will be.

The controversial, inexplicable ending against the Chippewas put an early damper on a season that has also included a loss to Baylor, but a good home win over Pittsburgh and an 18-point beating of Texas. Probably the best thing the Cowboys have done all season is win the turnover battle – they’re a plus-seven in that department, which helped them avoid embarrassment against both Iowa State and Kansas.

The target: West Virginia (8). The Mountaineers have been one of the surprise teams of the season, although that is at least partially attributable to a schedule that isn’t exactly barbed wire. But they appear to be playing their best football at the moment, beating Texas Tech and TCU by a combined 55 points.

 

The prediction: West Virginia 31, Oklahoma State 24. Last year the Cowboys were undefeated and prevailed in Morgantown in overtime. This is the equal and opposite reaction.

 

Utah (9). Season in 10 words: Coming out of retirement, getting back into the conference race.

Running back Joe Williams retired two games into this season, citing the toll on his body. He stayed retired for four games, until coach Kyle Whittingham asked him to make a comeback – and what a comeback it’s been. Williams ran for 179 yards on 34 carries against Oregon State, then blew up for a school-record 332 yards and four touchdowns last week against UCLA. For a team that doesn’t pass with great aplomb, a hitch-your-wagon running back is a godsend.

The target: Washington (10). The Huskies are the only unbeaten in the league, ranked fourth in the nation and have only played one game decided by fewer than 24 points. But upon further review, this is a résumé built on the prior reputations of Stanford and Oregon, and little else. Pounding those two teams meant a lot at the time, but not much since they both have fallen on desperately hard times. The combined league record of the four Pac-12 teams Washington has beaten is 3-14, and the non-league competition was Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. To The Dash’s surprise, this is the Huskies’ first big test.

 

The prediction: Washington 28, Utah 21. Huskies pass that first big test.

 

Wisconsin (11). Season in 10 words: The best two-loss team in the country, so far.

The Badgers drew a hellacious schedule and will now face their fifth Top 10 opponent. It’s true that LSU has since slid out of the Top 10 and Michigan State has been a complete fraud, but consecutive games against Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska are no joke. Wisconsin also suffered a major loss this week with stud linebacker Jack Cichy out for the season.

The target: Nebraska (12). Cornhuskers are 7-0, and it’s possible that their best win was against … Wyoming? (See below.) No, wait, it probably was winning at Northwestern … which lost to an FCS opponent and a MAC team. Regardless, the point is this: Nebraska hasn’t accomplished anything remarkable to get here undefeated. Winning in Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday would qualify as remarkable.

 

The prediction: Wisconsin 24, Nebraska 17. Remarkable isn’t happening Saturday for the Huskers.

 

Wyoming (13). Season in 10 words: Cowboys may not be great, but they’re no longer terrible.

After leaving a habitual winner at North Dakota State, Craig Bohl’s rebuilding job in Laramie was pretty painful for two seasons – the Pokes were a combined 6-18, and started 2015 with two double-digit losses as a double-digit favorite. But Bohl has turned it around, with Wyoming winning three straight Mountain West games for the first time since 2012. Now 5-2, they won’t be a walkover for Boise State on Saturday night.

The target: Boise State (14). The Broncos are undefeated but tried very hard to lose their last two games. They gave up 20 points in the final five minutes against Colorado State but hung on to win 28-23, and last week beat BYU 28-27 while going a minus-five in the turnover department. And both of those games were at home.

 

The prediction: Wyoming 31, Boise State 28. The Broncos just feel like a team that is asking to be beaten, and Wyoming will oblige.

Unbeatens playing next week:

 

Ball State (15). Season in 10 words: The Cardinals are defining mediocrity, one mediocre performance at a time. Ball State is 4-4, with every game but one decided by 10 points or less. That’s an immediate improvement under first-year coach Mike Neu, who took over a 3-9 team that was beaten 150-48 in its last three games.

The target: Western Michigan (16). The boat rowers come in for a Tuesday night game in Muncie, ensuring that they will be unbeaten when the first College Football Playoff poll comes out earlier that night. The Broncos have committed their first turnovers of 2016 – three of them in the last two games, in fact – but otherwise remain the dominant force in the MAC.

 

The prediction: Western Michigan 38, Ball State 21. The boat stops for no one.

 

LSU (17). Season in 10 words: Hat out, O in, Leonard back, it’s ‘Bama or bust.

The one thing that could make this turbulent season truly satisfying for the LSU faithful is out there gleaming like Sauron’s ring, bewitching and beguiling: the chance to beat nemesis Nick Saban and Alabama. It’s also the one thing that could make anyone take interim coach Ed Orgeron seriously as the next full-time coach of the Tigers. To do it, Leonard Fournette must find a way to crease the Crimson Tide defense the way he did Mississippi on Saturday when he ripped through the Rebels for 284 yards on just 16 carries. But that was Ole Miss, and this is an Alabama defense that swallowed Fournette whole last year, limiting him to 31 yards on 19 carries. If the much-injured Fournette wants to mount a serious Heisman Trophy campaign after missing three of seven games, this is the time to do it.

The target: Alabama (18). The best team in the country isn’t playing perfectly, but it’s still dominating. Makes you wonder what a complete game would look like, and which poor team might get swept away by the Tide during it.

The prediction: Alabama 28, LSU 17. The home crowd will once again go Cajun crazy if the Tigers lose their sixth straight in this series, but hopefully not as nuts as this girl.

All roads to the College Football Playoff lead through Nick Saban and Alabama. (Getty)

CONFERENCE CALL: THE NEW WORLD ORDER

 

Half the nation’s FBS conferences appear to be headed for an extreme makeover at the top. A look at those leagues:

American (19). This was supposed to be Houston’s league, but after losing by a shocking 22 points to SMU on Saturday, the defending champions are all but done. Instead Navy is in position to win its first-ever conference hardware after spending 114 of its 116 years as an independent. The Midshipmen (4-0 in league play) lead the West, while 3-1 South Florida – which also has never won a conference title of any sort – is tied with 2015 East champ Temple, though the Owls own the tiebreaker after beating the Bulls on Saturday.

Big Ten (20). The only schools that have played in the Big Ten championship game are Michigan State (three times), Wisconsin (three), Ohio State (two), Iowa (one) and Nebraska (one). It could be time for new blood from a blueblood. Michigan (4-0) has taken sole possession of the Big Ten East lead, and you might be surprised to learn that the Wolverines haven’t won even a share of the Big Ten title since 2004. On the other side, Nebraska (4-0) has a de facto two-game lead on everyone else when you consider that it beat closest pursuer Northwestern (3-1) head-to-head.

Mid-American (21). This league has been dominated by Northern Illinois and Bowling Green – the Huskies have played in the last six MAC title games, and the Falcons in the last three. This one will be staged without either team though, since they’re a combined 3-13 at present. The last week of the season looks juicy: East co-leaders Akron (last MAC title was 2005) and Ohio (last won a division in ’11) meet Nov. 22; West leader Western Michigan (last won a division in 2000) meets second-place Toledo (last won league in ’04) on Nov. 25.

Pac-12 (22). A 6.5 earthquake couldn’t cause this much upheaval. South co-leaders Utah and Colorado have never won anything as league members, and it’s been a while since they’ve won anything anywhere – the Buffaloes won a Big 12 division title in 2005, and the Utes won the Mountain West in ’08. In the North, Washington and Washington State are two games clear of California. Last time the Huskies won a piece of the league title was 2000; last time the Cougars did the same it was 2002. Of the five programs that have played in the Pac-12 championship game – Stanford, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State – only the Trojans (3-2) currently have a winning league record.

Sun Belt (23). Troy hasn’t had a winning record since 2010, which is also the last time the Trojans won part of a Sun Belt crown. They currently are 4-0 and 6-1 overall, with their only loss by six points to Clemson. Second-year coach Neal Brown is turning some heads.

 

STATUS QUO CONFERENCES

 

Here are the FBS conferences trending toward more of the same:

Atlantic Coast (24). Defending Atlantic Division champion Clemson (4-0) is in the driver’s seat. Defending Coastal Division champion North Carolina (4-1) has a half-game lead on Virginia Tech but would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker at present, which means the Tar Heels will be rooting for Pittsburgh when the Panthers and Hokies collide Thursday at Heinz Field. North Carolina has the week off, which means it will go into November still looking for its first interception of the season. The Heels are the last defense in America not to produce a single pick.

Big 12 (25). Oklahoma (4-0) won it last year and could win it this year, despite an appalling defense (more on that below). Directly behind the Sooners at 3-0 are 2014 co-champ Baylor and a West Virginia team not many were talking about in August. The Mountaineers have never won any Big 12 hardware and never lost fewer than four Big 12 league games in a season.

It’s a good thing Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense can put up points in bunches. Because their defense can’t stop anybody. (Getty)

Conference USA (26). Defending champion Western Kentucky is in position to win the East, while Louisiana Tech has gotten a leg up in the West with road games remaining against its closest pursuers, Southern Mississippi and North Texas.

Mountain West (27). The two teams at the top of the divisions are the past two conference champions: 2014 champ Boise State in the Mountain and 2015 champ San Diego State in the West. But as noted above, improving Wyoming could shake up the Mountain Division this weekend. And in the West, Hawaii’s road upset of Air Force last week could signal that the Warriors will give San Diego State a game Nov. 5.

Southeastern (28). As of today it is Alabama in the West and Florida in the East, same as it was last year. However, Tennessee still stands a solid chance of winning the East; it just needs a little help from LSU or someone else against Florida.

 

MISERY STATISTICS

 

Digging into some numbers behind a few of the incredible ongoing collapses in college football:

Stanford (29). This seems impossible to believe now, but the Cardinal entered the 2016 season with by far the nation’s longest active streak of consecutive games scoring at least 30 points. That streak was at 13. This year, Stanford hasn’t scored 30 points once, and hasn’t even scored 20 points since Sept. 24. Saturday against Colorado, it scored five. David Shaw hasn’t found an adequate replacement for four-year starting quarterback Kevin Hogan, has an overmatched offensive line and has seen Heisman Trophy finalist Christian McCaffrey rendered ordinary. Stanford is last in America in gains of 20 or more yards from scrimmage with 19, evidence of how punchless the offense has become. McCaffrey, who has battled injury, doesn’t have a play from scrimmage longer than 26 yards since the second game of the season.

Notre Dame (30). If you look at quarter-by-quarter statistical splits, you see something striking about the Fighting Irish passing game: it progressively goes to hell as games go along. In terms of efficiency, Notre Dame is fifth in America in first-quarter passing with a rating of 198.22. In the second quarter the Irish plummet to 54th, at 135.59. In the third quarter there is another big drop, to 81st, with a rating of 123.95. And in the fourth quarter the Irish bottom out at 91st, with a rating of 111.94. That suggests a couple of things: Brian Kelly and coordinator Mike Sanford can script a start, but may be flunking the in-game adjustment test; exasperation and desperation may sabotage quarterback poise and coach play-calling in the second half. Raise your hand if you think Kelly has lacked composure a time or two during games.

Oregon (31). Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to the only defense in America that is worse than Texas Tech’s. The Ducks are surrendering 539 yards per game, six more than the Red Raiders and dead last in FBS. The Ducks are equal-opportunity bad, ranking 118th nationally against the pass and 120th against the run. Oregon flunks physical football – it has forced just four fumbles (tied for 122nd nationally) and recovered just one (tied for last).

UCLA (32). Lost amid the implosions of both Stanford and Oregon is an impressive little meltdown in Westwood. The Bruins are 3-5, have lost three in a row and seem to have stolen Mike Leach’s playbook – without the success. The injury to standout quarterback Josh Rosen has not led UCLA to rely on the running game – no, it’s been the exact opposite. The Bruins have stopped even trying to run the ball. They let backup quarterback Mike Fafaul throw it 70 times in a loss against Utah on Saturday, while attempting 16 runs for 46 yards. The week before against Washington State, the ratio was 40 passes to 25 runs. And before that against Arizona State it was 54 passes to 23 runs. To the surprise of no one, UCLA is last in the Pac-12 by a wide margin in rushing yards per game (85.5) and yards per carry (2.81).

Is Jim Mora’s seat starting to heat up at UCLA? (Getty)

Oklahoma (33). On pace to be the worst defense in school history, by a cavernous margin. The Sooners are allowing 476 yards per game at present. Previous worst: 398, in 2012. That’s a byproduct of a league that has abandoned defense for tempo and points, but this is egregiously bad for a traditional power – and it is especially bad against the pass. The Sooners have allowed 22 touchdown passes while only making three interceptions. In that ridiculous touch-football game against Texas Tech on Saturday, the Red Raiders threw it 88 times and were only picked off once.

Bowling Green (34). The plummet from 10-4 last year to 1-7 this year has included a couple of key transitions that have not gone smoothly: from Dino Babers to Mike Jinks as head coach and from prolific Matt Johnson to “Mayday Mayday” at quarterback. Bowling Green has thrown 20 interceptions in eight games, the most in the nation by six over second-worst Kansas. The Falcons also are last nationally in turnover margin. Importing the hurry-up, throw-it-everywhere mentality from the Big 12 paid dividends under Babers, but trying it without a proven quarterback can lead to high-speed wrecks. Over and over again.

 

DID PENN STATE’S UPSET OF OHIO STATE HEAL ANYONE?

 

It was a great night for Penn State (35) football and its fans Saturday when the Nittany Lions shocked No. 2 Ohio State. It was undoubtedly a satisfying night for their coach, James Franklin (36), who had been catching heat for failing to produce immediate magic in Year Three of an ongoing rebuilding effort.

But was it really a healing night? Because that’s what Franklin said postgame.

“I’m just happy for our kids,” he told ESPN’s Sam Ponder on the field in the immediate aftermath. “The former players, the lettermen, this town has been through a lot. So, this is the start of our healing process tonight. I couldn’t be prouder.”

Later, Franklin told reporters that the victory was “a big step in the right direction in terms of healing.”

There was some collective wincing from the outside world at those words. A “healing process” implies a significant wound, and the truly significant wounds at Penn State cannot be healed by any football victory.

The wounds inflicted by Jerry Sandusky and those who enabled him aren’t healed by a blocked field goal that was returned for the winning touchdown. There are no victims of that horror who felt better because the Nittany Lions beat a ranked opponent for the first time since 2013. Nor did this end the conflict between the JoeBots waging a crusade for a deceased coach and those Penn Staters striving to move on.

It helped Penn State football fans feel better about their football program than they have in many, many years – which is not insignificant. And it undoubtedly increased support for Franklin – that’s certainly significant to him. Happy Saturdays in Happy Valley are welcomed by all who wear blue and white.

But a healing process?

That’s ascribing too much. Turning football victories into something bigger than football victories is part of what got Penn State into a dark place to begin with. Mythologizing the program and its leader helped create a too-big-to-fail mentality that ultimately led to a catastrophic failure.

Penn State doesn’t want to go back there – certainly not in deed, and hopefully not even in words. James Franklin deserved to be the happiest man in college football Saturday, but his characterization of a great victory could have been better.

 

SALUTING AN FCS INSTITUTION

 

The winningest active coach in Division I is stepping down at the end of this season, and you probably didn’t even know it. Andy Talley (37) of FCS power Villanova is near the end of a 37-year run coaching college football.

His career record is 255-153-2. For comparison’s sake, Nick Saban has 199 career college wins. Talley won a national title at ‘Nova in 2009, made the FCS playoff semifinals three times and has coached three Walter Payton Award winners (the Heisman of FCS). In addition, Talley has been a major advocate for the National Bone Marrow Foundation, and his involvement there led to the Andy Talley Bone Marrow Foundation.

In appreciation for his good work, Villanova dedicated a building in his honor over the weekend – the Andrew J. Talley Athletic Center in the west end zone of Villanova Stadium. The newest athletics facility on campus will be home to the Wildcats football program. His final team is 6-2 and ranked 13th nationally.

 

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

 

Mike MacIntyre (38), Colorado. No list of national Coach of the Year candidates is complete without MacIntyre, who has the Buffaloes tied for first in the Pac-12 South and bowl-eligible for the first time since 2007. MacIntyre took over a tire fire and has built it into something promising.

Mike MacIntyre has Colorado in a good position to win the Pac-12 South this season. (Getty)

The huge breakthrough this season has been on the defensive side of the ball. In veteran coordinator Jim Leavitt’s second season, Colorado has gone from hopeless to nasty. In year one under Leavitt, points allowed per game dropped from 39 to 27.5, and now they’ve dropped in Year Two to 18.1. Yards allowed is down to 308 per game from 417 last year, and down from a high of 489 during the doomed Jon Embree Mini-Era in 2012.

With three of their final four games in Boulder, the Buffaloes would seem to have a great shot at a division title. The regular-season finale against Utah could be for all the Pac-12 South marbles.

 

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

 

Barry Odom (39), Missouri. For now, you can add Odom’s name to the list of coaches with defensive pedigrees whose defenses couldn’t stop anybody when they embraced the hurry-up spread offense. The Tigers lead the SEC offensively in yards per game (505) and plays per game (80). They’re also last in the SEC in yards allowed per game (459) and were just mauled for 51 points and 584 yards by Middle Tennessee. That’s not Tennessee; that’s Middle Tennessee. Missouri has lost nine straight SEC games – and although the first six of those came on predecessor Gary Pinkel’s watch, Odom hasn’t done anything yet to stop the bleeding.

 

POINT AFTER

 

When hungry and thirsty in the college football capital of Birmingham (check the TV ratings), The Dash strongly suggests an extraordinary meal at Highlands (40). With an assist from Birmingham brahmin Warren St. John and the hospitality of Pardis Stitt and her chef husband, Frank, The Dash and friends had a memorable meal. Start with oysters, add the braised lamb shoulder and by all means accompany the meal with a locally brewed Good People IPA. Thank The Dash later.