Rating the region: Easiest of the four. Six members of the Pomeroy Ratings top 30. None in the top five. Only one coach with a national championship (Mike Krzyzewski) and two others with Final Four experience (Shaka Smart, Lon Kruger). Two major-conference winners: Oregon and Texas A&M.
Contenders to cut down the nets in Anaheim: Oregon, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma.
Pretenders who will be bounced early despite high seeds: Duke is in the danger zone. No depth, no defense, and a lot of minutes logged by the main guys. (In March, Grayson Allen has averaged 40 minutes per game.) Blue Devils have had first-round punch-outs twice in the last four years, against Mercer and Lehigh.
Cinderellas: UNC-Wilmington draws Duke and will throw an athletic, tenacious challenge at the Blue Devils. Matching up with Brandon Ingram and Marshall Plumlee will be difficult for a short team, but it will not be afraid of the challenge. This will be an up-and-down, 94-foot battle. (Also: Don't sleep on Green Bay, which will apply a tempo shock to Texas A&M's deliberate system.)
Team that doesn't belong: It's not so much that Oregon State doesn't belong – it just doesn't deserve a No. 7 seed. The Beavers are way overseeded given their power ratings: 60 Pomeroy, 58 Sagarin and 33 RPI. Number of victories over NCAA tournament teams outside the state of Oregon: zero. So, yes, VCU is an attractive upset option in the first round.
Chances of a 1-16 upset: At No. 268 in the Pomeroy Ratings and 14-19 overall, Holy Cross is in the discussion for worst NCAA tournament team of all-time. The Crusaders' play-in opponent, Southern, is No. 226. In other words: There is no chance of a 1-16 upset.
Best potential round-of-32 game: Texas-Texas A&M. Bitter rivals who went through realignment separation got back together in November in The Bahamas. If it comes to pass, this will be different with the season on the line.
Best potential Sweet 16 game: Texas can continue its rivalry tour of the West Region by facing Oklahoma in Anaheim. The two split in the regular season, with the Sooners' win coming in close and controversial fashion in Norman.
Best potential regional final game: An Oregon-Oklahoma matchup would pit one of the season's stars (Buddy Hield) against one of the season's revelations (the Ducks). Oregon won the first NCAA championship, in 1939, and hasn't visited the Final Four since.
Best coach: Mike Krzyzewski is the greatest NCAA tournament coach not named Wooden, and given the changes in the tourney you could make an argument he's on even footing. Krzyzewski owns five national titles and has been to 12 Final Fours.
Underrated coach: Until Tubby Smith got Texas Tech into the field this year, Lon Kruger was the only coach in NCAA history to take five different schools to the Big Dance: Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma. He took the Gators to the 1994 Final Four.
Best player: Buddy Hield has been a captivating shooter all year, leading the nation in scoring and producing some spectacular games. His 46-point performance at Kansas in triple overtime was probably the top individual effort of the year. And his half-court shot that came a tenth too late in the Big 12 tournament against West Virginia was the waved-off basket of the year.
Best player you haven't heard of: Gary Payton II of Oregon State has a famous name and an excellent all-around game that not many people have seen. Son of Glove can stuff a stat sheet: He leads the Beavers in scoring (15.9 points per game), rebounding (7.9 per, at 6-foot3), assists (5.1) and steals (2.5).
X-factor: Cameron Ridley. The Texas behemoth (6-9, 285) played for the first time in two months in the Big 12 tournament – a two-minute cameo against Baylor. But the Longhorns are hopeful he can provide more this week and for as long as they're alive in the NCAA tourney. Ridley was nearly a double-double guy (11.8 points, 9.2 rebounds) before breaking his foot in December.
Welcome March sight: The St. Joseph's Hawk mascot, who flaps his wings for the entire game. Every game. This tradition comes with its own motto: "The Hawk will never die." Check out the constant motion in Spokane Friday night against Cincinnati.
Best part of this bracket: The freshness. Cal-Bakersfield has never played in the Big Dance before. Yale's last visit was 1962. It's been 26 years for Oregon State, 20 for Green Bay, 10 for UNC-Wilmington and nine for Holy Cross. And unless Duke wins the region, someone is going to the Final Four for the first time in a very long time as well.
PICK: Texas.
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