The Michael Sam conspiracy lacks a real conspiracy

Who doesn't love a great conspiracy theory? Especially when it isn't concerning something serious, like assassinations or terrorism, and instead focuses on a seventh-round NFL draft pick and a cable television reality show?

So consider this headline on the website of 590 Sports Radio out of St. Louis: "League Made Deal With Rams To Draft Sam." Or this one from Deadspin: "Did The Rams Draft Michael Sam Just To Avoid Hard Knocks?"

Whoa. Good times.

Sam is defensive end Michael Sam, the first openly gay player to attempt to make the NFL. The St. Louis Rams selected him late in the 2014 draft amid much fanfare. He didn't make the team and after a brief stint in the Canadian Football League is out of the game.

The suggestion is that the NFL attempted to both rig its draft and engage in social engineering for a public relations benefit using HBO. If so, it is a bombshell of a scandal and a potentially illegal activity. So let's delve into this one, which stems from a report by Howard Balzer, a longtime NFL reporter.

Issue No. 1: Like any good conspiracy theory, what Balzer implies, sounds plausible at first glance, even to the person in the middle.

"I'm not surprised at all," Sam tweeted.

Except this would be beyond surprising. As little credibility as the NFL has, if you take a cool, calm look at what Balzer precisely wrote, then there is a way for this to make some sense but be mostly wrong at the same time.

Balzer's report cites multiple unnamed sources who say the Rams and the NFL made a deal that if the Rams selected Sam then the league would not force the team to appear on "Hard Knocks," HBO's popular "all-access show."

"It's been almost two years since the St. Louis Rams selected defensive end Michael Sam in the seventh round of the 2014 draft," Balzer wrote. "At the time, the Rams were hailed for being progressive and drafting the first openly gay player in the National Football League. It turns out, according to multiple sources, that the league agreed not to ask the Rams to appear that year on HBO's yearly summer series, HARD KNOCKS, if they drafted Sam."

The immediate questions here are two-fold, the definition of "if" and the timing of that "if."

Was it the NFL trying to give the Rams a deal – not appearing on "Hard Knocks" – if they took a player they didn't want to take? Or were the Rams trying to ask the NFL for a concession after they already decided to take Sam but before they made the actual selection, i.e. "if" they picked Sam could they avoid "Hard Knocks"?

These are distinctions with a difference because with the presence of the first openly gay player, "Hard Knocks" would have turned training camp into an exploitative disaster, something the NFL, the Rams and maybe even HBO might reasonably wish to avoid. Sam trying to make the team was going to be a soap opera even without 24/7 television cameras.

Balzer's implication is the NFL strong-armed the deal, but that very well may be his interpretation of an honest telling. Perhaps the "if" is correct, but he took it the wrong way.

That said, the Rams forcefully deny, and further reporting backs up, that there was any pre-selection discussions with the league office or HBO. "Hard Knocks" never crossed anyone's mind.

"That in itself is absolutely absurd, it's 100 percent incorrect," coach Jeff Fisher told ESPN's "Mike & Mike" radio show Thursday.

The decision to draft Sam was made exclusively by the football front office and coaching staff, and it did not involve other parts of the organization, including team owner Stan Kroenke, a Rams source told Yahoo Sports. It was purely a football decision.

Kroenke was not in St. Louis at the time, let alone the team's facility, the source said. He learned about the pick via a phone call from Fisher. This account is backed up by in-time report from Michael Silver of NFL.com (and formally Yahoo Sports) who was imbedded that day in the Rams' war room and reported Kroenke was not present. Per Silver's story that day, the decision was made on the spot when it became apparent that Sam would be available for the Rams, who were holding consecutive picks in the seventh round, Nos. 249 and 250.

"Rams coach Jeff Fisher turned to general manager Les Snead and team president Kevin Demoff and said, 'Let's go get Michael Sam,' " Silver wrote on for NFL.com.

Later Silver detailed Fisher calling Kroenke and informing him of the decision.

If the NFL was really offering a quid pro quo this sensitive, it certainly would have been dealing with ownership, not a coach. It would never dial into a meeting room where, via speakerphone, dozens of ears could have been listening. At no point, per Silver, who was sitting right there, did Fisher leave the room to take private calls.

Per Silver, Fisher explained the call to Kroenke as such: "'Stan was all for it,' Fisher told me about 30 minutes after making the pick. 'He said, 'I like it. Let's go for it.' "

Fisher dismissed the entire concept as absurd on ESPN, noting the need for players superseded everything. Sam was the co-defensive player of the year in the SEC and hardly a reach for the late seventh round.

"We had three seventh-round picks," Fisher said. "When we drafted Michael he was the best player on the board. Who in their right mind would think that you give up a draft choice to avoid doing something like that?"

Some teams dislike being on "Hard Knocks," but the Rams will appear this upcoming summer as they move to Los Angeles. It made sense to focus on the Rams this year since there is a lot of interest about the relocation, equal parts excitement (in L.A.) and anger (back in St. Louis).

What about back in 2014, though?

Any team that doesn't reach the playoffs is eligible to get selected to appear on "Hard Knocks," which details six weeks of training camp and exhibition games, as the team roster is set. No team can be picked two straight seasons. So, yes, the Rams were a possible choice because they failed the reach the playoffs. But was there any clamoring, prior to the Sam selection, for a relatively boring 7-9 team, which hadn't been to the playoffs in nine seasons? Was HBO excited about showcasing a small-market franchise with no marketable stars?

No way.

The Atlanta Falcons wound up on the show in 2014, mainly because they were in the NFC championship game two seasons prior. A bad 2013 season made them eligible for the show but they were still a potential championship contender in 2014. The Rams weren't. The Atlanta television market is also nearly twice the size of St. Louis.

How were the Rams even a likely choice?

Then there is this: the popular conclusion from the Balzer report is that the Rams were completely opposed to being on "Hard Knocks" because of the intrusion the show creates. In an effort to avoid that distraction, they picked a guy they didn't even want. However, picking that specific player assured their training camp was a media focus anyway. A record crowd of reporters, from sports and beyond, descended on camp and everything Sam did that summer was a story.

What would have been more unsettling for the franchise, "Hard Knocks" being around or having Michael Sam try to make the team? It's not like by picking Sam the team got to train in relative obscurity. The trade-off is even, at best.

Later in Balzer's report, the conspiracy goes off the rails. Balzer suggests, while offering not even an anonymous source, the possibility the NFL instructed the four teams holding the remaining six picks in the seventh round to not select West Texas A&M defensive end Ethan Westbrooks, whom the Rams supposedly wanted to take in Sam's spot.

The implication is that the NFL made sure Sam, a player the Rams didn't like, got picked for PR reasons but in exchange made sure the Rams were still able to get the guy, Westbrooks, they liked. Westbrooks went undrafted but, unlike Sam, made the team and is still with the franchise.

Balzer's proof? There is none.

"There is no direct evidence that the teams picking after the Rams were urged (told?) not to draft Westbrooks, but would anyone be surprised if that was the case as a thank-you to the Rams for taking everyone off the hook?" he wrote.

Actually anyone who knows the NFL would be utterly stunned. There is almost no way the league would A) consider this and B) attempt to pull it off.

The NFL is ultra-competitive. It's unimaginable the NFL would attempt to urge, or directly tell, or even discuss with four separate organizations – Dallas, Atlanta, Houston and Cincinnati – to pass on a prospective player. To even try this was to open the NFL up to a monster scandal and possible federal investigation for fixing the sport. The damage would be incredible and far-reaching. It also would have already come out publicly. With that many teams and that many potential "sources" involved, it would have leaked almost immediately.

It's inconceivable.

What makes sense is that the Rams, on their own, decided to select Sam because they thought they were getting a potential player at a spot where many picks don't make it. Fisher didn't care about sexual orientation and wanted to give him a fair shot. If anything, they may have been getting value with the pick because other teams, right or not, didn't want to deal with the hoopla of picking Sam.

Then, after the Sam pick was made, the Rams eventually discussed with the NFL having the franchise avoid "Hard Knocks" because the story of Sam trying to make the club would appear exploitive and distasteful.

Or the NFL may have brought it up first. Or even HBO.

Simply put, "Hard Knocks" is a promotional tool of the NFL and there is no way the Rams, or whatever team brought Sam in, should have appeared that season. When Sam himself tried to do his own, far less revealing, reality show with Oprah Winfrey's production company, the team strongly suggested he drop the project. He quickly did.

A post-pick removal of the Rams from "Hard Knocks" consideration would have been the proper decision. So maybe that happened. Maybe that was the discussion that Balzer heard about. Maybe – maybe – that is the kernel of truth.

As for the rest of the conspiratorial speculation, as wild and juicy as the story would be, it's incredibly unlikely. Sorry, fellow conspiracy theory fans.