Rating the region: Third-toughest of the four. Contains nine of the Pomeroy Ratings’ top 30, but only one major-conference tournament champion.
Contenders to cut down the nets in Louisville: Kansas, Maryland, California, Miami, Villanova.
Pretenders who will be bounced early despite high seeds: Sixth-seeded Arizona will face a difficult matchup with whoever wins the play-in game between Vanderbilt and Wichita State. The Wildcats simply haven’t put it together as well as expected this year and are just 2-6 away from Tucson against teams in the field. Vandy has a pair of 7-footers with NBA potential, and nobody should be overly excited about facing the Shockers, who are the No. 1 defensive team in the nation according to Pomeroy.
Cinderellas: If seeding defines Cinderella, then Wichita State is the scariest thing in glass slippers. A lack of quality wins dropped the Shockers’ seeding to No. 11, but this is a program that has gone 7-3 in the past three NCAA tourneys and has a pair of senior guards in Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker who have seen it all.
Team that doesn’t belong: Vanderbilt’s inclusion raised eyebrows. The committee says (and it’s believable) that it doesn’t count bids by conference – but leaving the SEC with just two teams would have been a huge blow to that league. As it is, it’s bad enough to barely get a third team in alongside Kentucky and Texas A&M. Vandy lost six games to non-tournament teams and beat absolutely no one of consequence away from quirky Memorial Gymnasium.
Chances of a 1-16 upset: Ha. It would require a pardon from the governor to stop the Austin Peay Governors’ scheduled execution Thursday in Des Moines at the hands of Kansas. At 18-16, the champions of the Ohio Valley Conference are living on borrowed time.
Best potential Sweet 16 game: Kansas-Maryland. If the Terrapins defend the way they did against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, they will be a very tough out. Terps have underachieved this season but have plenty of size and talent.
Best potential round-of-32 game: Villanova-Temple. A Philly Big Five brawl could break out in Brooklyn.
Best potential Sweet 16 game: Kansas-Maryland. If the Terrapins defend the way they did against Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, they will be a very tough out. Terps have underachieved this season but have plenty of size and talent.
Best potential regional final game: Kansas-Miami. Jim Larranaga attempting to get back to the Final Four one decade after his miraculous run at George Mason.
Best coach: Kansas’ Bill Self has a national championship ring and two Final Four appearances. He also owns the Big 12 in a Woodenesque way.
Underrated coach: South Dakota State’s Scott Nagy has taken the Jackrabbits to three NCAA tourney bids in the last five years, and has authored six straight winning seasons after moving the program up to Division I.
Best player: Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ season-ending skid cannot be blamed on Uthoff, whose All-America season has continued without significant downturn. He’s averaging 18.9 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game – the last a remarkable number for a guy who does not anchor around the basket.
Best player you haven’t heard of: Colorado big man Josh Scott has been an under-reported senior success story. He’s averaging 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds, both career highs, leading the Buffaloes to their third NCAA bid in his four seasons in Boulder.
X-factor: The Ollie Factor. Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie has quite the growing postseason résumé. After winning the American Athletic Conference tourney, he’s now 8-2 in that event in three seasons. And his NCAA tournament record is a perfect 6-0, thanks to the 2014 title run and missing the Big Dance last year. I can’t imagine Kansas, which has had some memorable second-round flameouts, would relish the possibility of meeting up with Ollie on Saturday in Des Moines.
Welcome March sight: Three of the four oldest coaches in the tournament, still doing their thing and doing it well. Take a bow, 69-year-old Dave Loos of Austin Peay. And you, 67-year-old Fran Dunphy of Temple. And you, 66-year-old Jim Larranaga of Miami. (The fourth: Mike Krzyzewski, age 69.) Best Part of This Bracket: The California-Hawaii game tips off at 2 p.m. ET Friday. Except they’re playing in Spokane, which makes it an 11 a.m. tip locally. That’s an adjustment for the Golden Bears but it’s really something for the Warriors – that’s 8 a.m. Hawaii time.
PICK: Kansas.
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