Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Here's why John Elway faces toughest task of any GM this offseason

For every Super Bowl-winning architect, there is the inevitable raid of that builder's work. It comes from the NFL's birds of free agency, circling overhead and strategically invading from places like Houston, Jacksonville and Chicago. Denver Broncos general manager John Elway knows this predatory game because he is the executive who most recently perfected it.
John Elway enjoyed the spoils of victory in February. (AP) Lest anyone forget, that's how these Broncos won the Super Bowl in February, loaded with a roster accentuated by players groomed elsewhere. Specifically, with the prize free-agent assemblage of 2014: cornerback Aqib Talib, linebacker DeMarcus Ware, safety T.J. Ward and wideout Emmanuel Sanders. That class was seized to maximize the descending championship opportunities of quarterback Peyton Manning. Now that it has, Elway has been greeted with the opposite edge of his own free-agent sword. Chiefly the loss of vital young players, whose talents and opportunities intersected at the perfect moment.
Budding quarterback starter Brock Osweiler, cornerstone defensive end Malik Jackson, hardhat linebacker Danny Trevathan was a trio that represented the flagship free-agent haul of 2016. That group was divvied up and sent to various corners of the NFL. This is what makes Elway the most challenged general manager of this offseason. He lost vital pieces but not the championship expectations that they helped instill.
That's not to say there aren't tough jobs elsewhere. In truth, little comes easy to any NFL general manager. Guys like the New Orleans Saints' Mickey Loomis and New York Jets' Mike Maccagnan find themselves in need of talent but are firmly pressed against their salary cap limits. The Philadelphia Eagles' Howie Roseman is pressing the reset button on a litany of recent roster mistakes. And Paul DePodesta, the Cleveland Browns' chief strategy officer, is attempting to revive a decaying franchise with methods that have apparently drawn mockery among his peers.
But Elway is under a different pressure. In only four years, he has made a handful of aggressive moves that have defined his suddenly elite profile as an executive: the dumping of Tim Tebow and the serendipitous Manning sweepstakes in 2012; the successful salary cap splurge of 2014; and the overhaul of the head coach and coordinator positions prior to the 2015 season. If you're running a finger along the timeline that turned the Broncos into a Super Bowl champion, it's impossible to miss those offseason pivot points. All three were high-risk and high-reward. And all three were Elway-inspired, his executive adaptation of squeezing a frozen rope completion into triple coverage.
What he faces now will say as much about him as an executive as anything he has already accomplished. As hard as it is to build a Super Bowl roster, it might be more difficult to retool a championship team when the rest of the league comes swooping in to pick it apart. Particularly when there is no Manning to be had in the offseason, and little cap space to exchange free-agency cannon fire.
The reality in the NFL is that the best players-turned-executives are guys who adapt and grow when confronted with losing in the offseason. It's what has made Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome so valuable to that franchise for the past 20 years. And it'll define Elway from this point forward. Will he make the smart financial adjustments and sacrifices of a guy like Seattle Seahawks GM John Schneider, who has positioned his team for long-term viability? Or will success and short-term financial decisions quickly paint him into an awkward corner like Loomis, who is trying to renegotiate the Saints out of the current $30 million cap charge of quarterback Drew Brees.
We've already seen Elway make his stand. When he used the franchise tag on Von Miller, he made a statement: that the superstar edge rusher was the most valuable commodity in the trio of Miller, Osweiler and Jackson. When he refused to engage in a bidding war to retain Osweiler, he made a personnel choice that suggested he knows something about the player that the Houston Texans will spend the next four seasons figuring out. And when he let Trevathan leave, he suggested that the NFL draft intelligence gathered by his personnel department suggested that the linebacker was a replaceable piece.
He followed those moves up Tuesday by matching an offer sheet for C.J. Anderson, keeping the running back in Denver.
Elway's challenges are just beginning. Despite his affinity for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, he won't cave to the leverage that San Francisco believes it holds on the trade market. Instead, he backstopped his offseason with Mark Sanchez and, according to two NFL scouting sources, doubled-down on positive draft evaluations of Michigan State's Connor Cook and Mississippi State's Dak Prescott.
As it stands, other league executives believe Elway isn't finished. They believe Kaepernick will be in play for Denver right up to the NFL draft. They believe Von Miller will get a gargantuan extension before training camp arrives. They believe Denver will work to strengthen the running game to protect the core of its defense and whoever lines up under center. Most of all, Elway's NFL executive peers believe he's sitting in his office right now, trying to find his next aggressive angle. And they're probably right.
For four years, he has played his part in the most predatory offseasons in Denver Broncos history. How he reacts to being on the other side of the pursuit will define his franchise and his legacy over the next decade.

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