We’re a week into free agency, and everything has changed. Players have been cut, big free agents have changed teams and we even have had a few notable trades go down.
That changes team needs, and it certainly affects the draft. That’s the theme of this week’s mock. There will still be moves made between now and April 28, but teams’ needs largely will remain similar, just as their draft boards are starting to harden into place.
With that in mind, here’s our latest offering of how the first round might go, and we have a few surprises — only two quarterbacks in Round 1, plus a dramatic trade up thereafter. Check it out:
1. Tennessee Titans — Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil
There’s a chance the Titans are more infatuated with Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey. Besides, Yahoo Sports’ Eric Adelson wrote about Ramsey this week titled “The star who should go No. 1 in the NFL draft, but won't” so I wouldn’t want to anger Adelson. I’ve argued that the Titans have put a lot into the O-line, with not a ton to show for it, but I suppose protecting Marcus Mariota is crucial.
2. Cleveland Browns — North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz
This isn't close to being set in stone. The Browns like him. But they’re sniffing around other veteran quarterbacks such as Colin Kaepernick. That’s … interesting. For now, Wentz stays. He should rent this space, though, and not buy.
3. San Diego Chargers — Florida St. DB Jalen Ramsey
He’s an elite prospect, and the Chargers shouldn’t look elsewhere just because they signed Casey Heyward and Dwight Lowery. Those are complementary pieces; Ramsey is a difference maker. At safety or cornerback. Ramsey could be the next Eric Weddle, or even what Antonio Cromartie should have been. The Chargers have done work on offense this offseason, but that pass defense that allowed the fifth-most yards per attempt needs work, especially with Weddle gone to Baltimore.
4. Dallas Cowboys — Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
Bosa played high school at St. Thomas Aquinas (Fla.), one of the dominant programs in the country. He played college ball for Urban Meyer at Ohio State. And in this projection, Bosa would join one of the more storied NFL franchises, on a defense that could use his help. Greg Hardy is gone, and Randy Gregory is an unknown quantity. Demarcus Lawrence and Bosa would make a fine pair. This is the kind of scheme in which Bosa can thrive.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars — UCLA LB Myles Jack
The pass rush badly needs a boost from the edge after the Jaguars failed to land free-agent help there, but in this scenario who really cares? Jack is elite. He’s a rare athlete and a good football player, able to play three downs for Gus Bradley’s defense. And that could be right away given the amazing progress Jack has made with his knee rehab.
6. Baltimore Ravens — Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
Lawrence Guy is just a guy, and Chris Canty turns 34 this year. Put Buckner up front with Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan and good luck, AFC North, running against that front. Watch C.J. Mosley have a resurgent season with that front. Buckner is a heck of a player whom general manager Ozzie Newsome will enjoy watching on tape.
7. San Francisco 49ers — Cal QB Jared Goff
There’s still the whole Kaepernick deal to sort out, but it can’t hurt taking a quarterback with good instincts, touch and quick decision-making skills — the real things Chip Kelly looks for — and developing him over time. The other talent available and needs don’t match up here.
8. Philadelphia Eagles — Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
General manager Howie Roseman made it clear he wanted to land inside the top 10, making it appear he had a specific player targeted at this spot. It could be Elliott, with DeMarco Murray gone and Ryan Mathews perhaps a step behind him. It also could be someone such as Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves III. Elliott could be an exceptional back, and like Todd Gurley a year ago, this isn’t exorbitantly high to take a running back.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
We mulled Hargreaves here, but with the addition of Brent Grimes, the need for a true pass rusher — that’s not Robert Ayers’ true bread and butter — makes Lawson the pick here. The Bucs are starting to put their defense back together slowly.
10. New York Giants — Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
This move feels tenuous right now given the Giants’ visits with free-agent tackles and how the market hasn’t developed as quickly as projected. It also feels risky going back-to-back with an OT in the top 10. A pass rusher such as Kevin Dodd makes sense, too. The Giants still need defense. Yes, we’re hedging a bit.
11. Chicago Bears — Louisville DE Sheldon Rankins
Rankins — who played a variety of techniques for the Cardinals — should be a penetrating 5-technique (even if he doesn't have textbook length for that spot) and give the Bears more of an interior push. They’d love someone to scream off the edge, but does that player exist at this point in the draft? This is a good fit.
12. New Orleans Saints — Clemson DE Kevin Dodd
The Saints could use some interior help, but the depth of this DT class can allow them to wait a round. The pairing of Dodd and Cameron Jordan would be a forceful one and give the team the size it needs to combat big, athletic quarterbacks Cam Newton and Jameis Winston a quarter of the season the next few years.
13. Miami Dolphins — Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves III
The Dolphins trade down five slots, add Byron Maxwell and draft a player they likely would have considered at No. 8? Not bad. They still need corners, and Hargreaves has a blue-chip pedigree and should bounce back after an up-and-down final college season. As long as he doesn’t lose a step, he could be a top corner.
14. Oakland Raiders — Ohio State LB Darron Lee
A pour-one-out pick for Al Davis in his war room in the sky? Perhaps. Or maybe this is just a darned good football player, and not merely a fast one. The Raiders re-signed Donald Penn and now have a whopper of an offensive line, so they don’t need to reach for one of the Big Ten guys. Linebacker is the spot that’s most in need of a tuneup outside the secondary. Ben Heeney is best in a reserve/special-teams role, and Malcolm Smith is replaceable.
15. Los Angeles Rams — Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
I’m resisting the urge. It’s popular to place a quarterback here, and yet it makes sense for the Rams to use their draft ammo (three picks in the top 45) to trade up for Wentz or Goff should one slip rather than reach here on Memphis’ Paxton Lynch — who, admittedly, has L.A. hair — and hope he develops. Why not draft the best big target who also happens to be a darned good run blocker? Jeff Fisher loves SEC players almost as much as he does former Titans.
16. Detroit Lions — Michigan State OT Jack Conklin
Bit of trivia: After drafting a lot of in-state college players in the 1990s and 2000s, the last state-of-Michigan college player the Lions have drafted was Western Michigan University’s Louis Delmas in 2009. Of course, this pick is more about need. Move Riley Reiff inside or to right tackle, and the Lions could improve two spots with one pick. Conklin is the kind of tough, mentally strong player that general manager Bob Quinn saw the New England Patriots bring in consistently in his time there under Bill Belichick.
17. Atlanta Falcons — Georgia LB Leonard Floyd
Another local connection, another coincidental one. Floyd might be mostly potential at this point, and that could be scary for a Falcons franchise that has whiffed on some defensive talent they’ve brought in the past few years. It wouldn’t be doubling up too much for them to go with Floyd a year after taking Vic Beasley in the same range; they're different animals. The Falcons need help and can use both to combat the good quarterbacks on their schedule this year — in addition to Newton, Winston and Drew Brees twice this season, they also see Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers and Derek Carr.
18. Indianapolis Colts — Ohio State OT Taylor Decker
They’ve passed on first-round OL talent long enough. Part of the return of head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson had to be some kind of pact that they would work more in cohesion about what the team’s needs were in the draft. In Decker, the Colts would get a Day 1 starter at right tackle (where he played as a sophomore) who can keep Andrew Luck cleaner and help drive a better run game.
19. Buffalo Bills — Eastern Kentucky OLB-DE Noah Spence
Spence was higher in some previous Shutdown Corner mock drafts, but he falls in nicely here to a team that needs some edge-pressure help and one that likely is transitioning to more 3-4 looks with Mario Williams gone. Put Jerry Hughes on one side, Spence on the other and attack Tom Brady or whomever. That’s what Rex Ryan wants to do but can’t until he gets more help.
20. New York Jets — Kansas State OG-OT Cody Whitehair
A candidate to move down, the Jets are stuck in an awkward range here where their primary needs don’t match the draft board's offerings. Why not take the safest pick available in Whitehair, who could be a Day 1 starter at guard or tackle, or as a down-the-road replacement for center Nick Mangold? The Jets might end up finding D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s replacement in free agency, but that doesn’t negate the need for another quality offensive lineman here.
21. Washington Redskins — Alabama NT Jarran Reed
The Redskins badly need youth and reinforcements up front, and GM Scot McCloughan always has built from the trenches out, so this pick would be a no-brainer. Reed is a true two-gap nose tackle, and though he might not be a pass rusher of any note, he can help break down the interior for a team that had trouble doing that a year ago.
22. Houston Texans — Baylor WR Corey Coleman
I had faith. I kept putting Coleman in this spot for two months straight, and I parried all (most) of your we-need-a-quarterback-you-dummy attacks. They were fair enough at the time; the Texans didn’t have Brock Osweiler then. Adding Coleman’s field-tilting ability to an offense that now has Lamar Miller to go along with DeAndre Hopkins, and this thing really could hum. Coleman also boosts an anemic punt return (long of 20 yards last season).
23. Minnesota Vikings — TCU WR Josh Doctson
Mike Wallace can rip Teddy Bridgewater all he wants on his way out of town, but he didn’t help make his quarterback better. For all the folks who said the Vikings needed a true deep threat, that connection didn’t play out. Why not instead seek a taller receiver who can win in the air? Much of TCU’s offense was Doctson winning battles on 50-50 balls, and that could translate well here.
24. Cincinnati Bengals — Notre Dame WR Will Fuller
A three-receiver run! I’ve resisted this connection in the past, but no longer. The losses of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu — although they’re far different, style-wise, than Fuller — make this pick all the more necessary. If new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese is anything like his father, Ernie, a protégé of the Air Coryell vertical passing system, he’ll want a speed dynamic that Fuller brings to help complement A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers — Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
It has been a while since the Steelers had a true alpha dog defensive back (I don’t count Mike Mitchell as this, per se), and the highly confident Alexander could change that. Drafting two corners with their first four picks last year hasn’t worked out yet, but it shouldn’t preclude the Steelers from landing a man-cover corner who is not afraid of attacking the Greens and Wallaces (and maybe Josh Gordons) of the division.
26. Seattle Seahawks — Alabama C Ryan Kelly
The Seahawks are known for putting resources elsewhere and going off the grid a bit, but they can’t overlook the offensive line — especially that interior — any longer. Kelly is about as safe a prospect as there is at this point, and though the defensive line could use more depth, this is a smart play.
27. Green Bay Packers — Baylor NT Andrew Billings
The annual “What will Ted Thompson do?” guesses are amusing, as he has stuck to a pretty rigid best-available mantra for some time now and ignored fans’ requests to upgrade at certain positions (tight end, inside linebacker) very high in the draft for years now. That’s why projecting them to fill a need, which nose tackle is now, is a bit dangerous. But Billings is a bullishly strong nose who can penetrate, and the loss (hiatus?) of B.J. Raji means the Packers must do better than Letroy Guion for 600 snaps this season.
28. Kansas City Chiefs — Mississippi State DE Chris Jones
I really don’t know which way they’ll head here, as there’s no offensive tackle (LeRaven Clark?) who might excite them. A trade down is an option for sure. But if not, keep an eye on Jones. He’s fascinating with his versatility and could be a Fletcher Cox-like performer in time. Jones has lined up just about everywhere and would help make a good front seven even better.
29. Arizona Cardinals — Ohio State CB Eli Apple
The trade for Chandler Jones helps eliminate the need for a pass rusher here — and that’s good because there are none worth taking at this spot. That’s likely something the Cardinals’ smart brass was seeing in its early projections. Instead, they opt for a player who fits the team’s needs and prototype from a size and competition standpoint. He’s likely too handsy for the NFL, but that can be fixed.
30. Carolina Panthers — Oklahoma State DE Emmanuel Ogbah
This one feels right. The Panthers re-signed Charles Johnson but have done a nice job of drafting players for down-the-road needs and not immediate ones for reach picks. Ogbah might have a ceiling, but like Johnson he works his way to the quarterback with power, savvy and effort (most of the time). A nice, solid pick.
31. Denver Broncos — Louisiana Tech DL Vernon Butler
Instant replacement for Malik Jackson, even if Butler is a different type of animal. Butler won’t rush the passer with the same ferocity, but he has incredible length, good athleticism and nice power to collapse the pocket. Some are pegging him as a nose tackle, but he plays very well over tackles, too. John Elway and Co. were sniffing around a lot of D-linemen even before Jackson bolted, so this would not be a surprise.
And ... drumroll ...
32. New England Patriots (trade with Cleveland Browns for the first pick of Round 2) — Alabama RB Derrick Henry
We make this pick half in jest, as it would be a tremendous bird flip to Roger Goodell to trade up into the first 32 selections, right around the pick the commish took away from them for the deflate-gate nonsense, and take the Heisman Trophy winner. We haven’t projected any other trades until this spot because they’re difficult to do, but this one is almost too easy — and too fun — not to make. They’ve added a second-rounder in the Jones trade and now have 10 picks, which they’re not likely to use all of. Would Henry fit here? Sure, he would with the Patriots’ Alabama connections and Henry’s LeGarrette Blount comparisons pretty obvious. But this pick was made for other reasons, too.
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