If Jon Gruden turned down Colts, Andrew Luck, why would he ever return to coaching?

Jon Gruden now has entered the Bill Cowher zone: fully immersed in his broadcasting career, no looking back. We no longer list Cowher as a coaching candidates for NFL head coaching openings, and we might have to start doing the same for Gruden, who is coming up on almost a decade in the booth and might never coach again.

How can we say this so definitively? Well, Gruden reportedly met with Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay, who made a run at him. But Gruden apparently said thanks, but no thanks.

Rumors true: Colts owner Jim Irsay did pursue Jon Gruden, but Gruden resisted overtures, league sources tell ESPN. Gruden staying in TV.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 14, 2017

The Colts might not be one of the two or three most plum jobs in the NFL, but it has some terrific allures. The most attractive element of the job right now might be the chance to coach Andrew Luck in his prime. Gruden passed on that. What would it take, then, to get him to change his mind?

If you want to argue that Luck is overhyped, that’s your prerogative. But ever since “Spider 2 Y Banana” became a thing, it has been clear that Gruden loves Luck. Almost one year ago to the day, the MMQB’s Peter King wrote that Gruden was willing to listen in earnest to a job offer to coach the Colts and Luck, and we have no reason to doubt the veracity of that report. Gruden might wax poetic about most quarterbacks — or at least not say much bad about them — on broadcasts, but it’s hard not to notice that he adores Luck as a player.

Let’s go ahead and assume that Gruden’s NFL coaching career is finished. If he does somehow take a job down the road, we can act surprised.

We always assumed that it would take a Luck-like quarterback to lure Gruden back into coaching. So assuming he doesn’t change his mind suddenly, why would we ever assume he’s going to a year from now … or ever? It might be time to stop thinking of him as a potential wild-card hire for any glitzy job that opens. Gruden might just be fine and dandy making a head coach’s salary as reportedly ESPN’s highest-paid employee.

The other takeaway from this report is Irsay and the man he apparently would replace (but also reportedly told he would not replace), and that’s current head coach Chuck Pagano. This a bad look from the owner here, even for a potential shot at a rock star replacement.

That’s what letting Pagano twist in the wind does: It undermines him. It casts a view that he’s not in any way the coach the owner really wants to run his team and that the only reason he’s not getting fired right now is that he can’t lure a Gruden, Jim Harbaugh or Nick Saban to come to Indy. That’s also far less of a rejection of working for Luck as it is working under Irsay. People close to the owner say he’s a smart man, but his public image is hurt when these types of stories emerge.

Now, could Irsay land another big fish and change that narrative? Oh, sure. Such as …

WTHR can confirm that the Colts have spoken to Peyton Manning about a front office job with team. Told it's still a fluid situation.

— Bob Kravitz (@bkravitz) January 14, 2017

That tantalizing tweet must have Colts fans all in a tizzy. The rumors of Manning joining the team in some capacity have been floating around for months now. But there’s no certainty he would take the job, and then we’d have to go through another round of whether Pagano’s job is safe as we get closer to February and five of the six current head-coaching vacancies already have been filled.

Irsay’s silence on Pagano thus far also should raise doubts about why any high-profile candidate — even if Manning was part of the production — should want to work for this owner. For now, Pagano and the team suffer as well because it projects the current head coach as being a mere placeholder until something shinier comes available. Not the best day for the future of the Colts, it would appear, even if Irsay could land someone big soon.