How each of the four teams can reach Super Bowl LI

NFC Championship Game

No. 4 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Atlanta Falcons

Jan. 22 | Georgia Dome | 3:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Game HQ page

 

Why the Packers will win: After eight consecutive victories, the Packers are confident beyond measure. Two of the most important players in the postseason are the quarterback and the place-kicker, and the Packers couldn't be situated better at either spot. Aaron Rodgers has never played at a higher level. In his past nine starts, he has thrown 24 touchdown passes and one interception. And, oh by the way, Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception -- and compiled an 88.4 Total QBR -- in four starts at the Georgia Dome. Mason Crosby, meanwhile, has made 21 consecutive postseason field goals; his last miss was in 2010. The Packers are not perfect by any means. But you're in a pretty good spot when your quarterback is playing out of his mind and your kicker can't miss.

 

Why the Falcons will win: Quarterback Matt Ryan, the league's presumptive MVP, can match Rodgers throw for throw. In his past nine games, Ryan has thrown 22 touchdown passes and three interceptions. The Falcons' entire pass offense will be a matchup nightmare for the Packers, whose mediocre defensive secondary has been perpetually limited by injury. The Packers don't have a lead cornerback to match up on receiver Julio Jones, let alone the other 12 players that caught touchdown passes from Ryan this season (an NFL single-season record). The Packers' defensive options will be limited. Their blitz was not effective Sunday against the Cowboys; Dak Prescott completed seven of eight passes against it for 108 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan was great against the Seahawks' blitz on Saturday, completing 10 of 13 throws for 154 yards. He'll get his on championship Sunday.

 

X factor: Packers tight end Jared Cook made the catch of the season to set up the winning field goal in Dallas. His impact on the Packers' season has been nothing short of transcendent since returning from an ankle injury. The best way to illustrate it: When Cook is on the field, Rodgers has thrown touchdown passes at about twice the rate that he did when Cook was injured. The Falcons had trouble against tight ends during the regular season, giving up 86 receptions for 988 yards and eight touchdowns to them. Those numbers ranked No. 23, 24 and 26 in the NFL, respectively.

 

Bottom line: There isn't going to be much defense in this game. Las Vegas gets it and has established a huge over/under of 60. The Falcons are the early favorite, but after watching Rodgers the past two months, are you ready to bet against him?

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AFC Championship Game

No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 1 New England Patriots

Jan. 22 | Gillette Stadium | 6:40 p.m. ET | CBS | Game HQ page

Why the Steelers will win: Only real talk here. It's going to be tough. This hasn't been a good matchup for the Steelers in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They have lost nine of their past 12 to the Patriots and have won in New England only once in the past 18 years. That one victory? It came in 2008, after Brady tore his ACL and Matt Cassel took over as the starting QB. To be fair, Brady has always been susceptible -- as are most quarterbacks -- to a strong pass rush. Brady threw two interceptions to the Houston Texans' defense Saturday, and the Steelers' pass rush might be the NFL's best. It had a league-high 30 sacks over the second half of the regular season and is a big reason why the Steelers have now won nine consecutive games.

Why the Patriots will win: They're almost as hot as the Steelers, riding an eight-game winning streak. Plus, this is all very familiar territory. Since 2001, the start of the Belichick/ Brady era, the Patriots are 16-3 at home in the playoffs. That includes 4-1 in AFC championship Games. Gillette Stadium, as we noted earlier this season, has brought the Patriots the NFL's best home-field advantage in recent years. Plus, the Steelers could not manage a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs' defense on Sunday night. Guess what? The Patriots' defense is stingier. Since the midpoint of the season, it has allowed the NFL's lowest average points per game (14.8).

X factor: It's hard to look past the player with whom the Patriots are 15-0 when he plays. On Saturday, running back Dion Lewis joined the Chiefs' Tyreek Hill as the only NFL players to score touchdowns by via a run, reception and kickoff return in the same game since Gayle Sayers in 1965. Lewis' versatility is derived from exceptional open-field ability; his 13-yard touchdown reception began when he caught the ball six yards behind the line of scrimmage. The Steelers have some interesting matchup possibilities from their athletic set of linebackers, but they'll have their work cut out for them.

Bottom line: The Steelers haven't lost since mid-November, and they are always a threat when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, tailback Le'Veon Bell and receiver Antonio Brown are in the lineup. But it would be a real surprise if the Patriots aren't the AFC representative in Super Bowl LI.