Technically speaking, every team in the American League not named the Oakland A’s remains in the playoff hunt. Yes, even the Boston Red Sox, who at 60-70 are a mere 8½ back of the second wild-card spot. Scoff at the idea that postseason dreams still exist in Boston, but make sure not to forget the 2011 Red Sox, who showed exactly how to lose 8½ games in the standings over one month.
Still, to include the Red Sox and the rest of their sub-.500 brethren in this supersized 10 Degrees felt wrong, because let’s face it: If you can’t muster a .500 record at this point in the season, you probably don’t deserve a playoff spot, not even with the extra wild card turning a Bud Heavy postseason into Bud Light.
The break-even threshold yielded 14 playoff contenders, some of whose spots are essentially locked up, some of whom will continue fighting in a race not yet ripe with drama. Two weeks from now, perhaps it’s there, and much of that depends on the schedule of each contender, with some teams capable of preying on their gift and others ruing their misfortune.
While this assessment usually begins with the toughest schedules, it seemed better to start the 2015 version with the easiest, because it’s reflective of this season that’s so full of mediocrity. That, and if they manage to bungle this cakewalk, there may be no greater disappointment possible, and that’s really difficult to fathom, considering the past collapses of the …
1. New York Mets
Record: 72-58, lead NL East by 5½ games
Run differential: +53
Opponents' winning percentage: .439
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 17, 28
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 9 of 32
Key series: vs. Nationals, Oct. 2-4
Overview: The second-biggest division lead in baseball. The best 1-2 punch this side of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. And now the easiest schedule? It’s almost like the baseball gods felt bad for the past decade or so and decided to look past what miserable owners the Wilpons have been and reward Mets fans for not giving up. Of their 32 games, 23 are against teams with winning percentages of .415 or worse. The best team they play is the Yankees. They’ve got nicely staggered off-days. Really, things could not be any better for the Mets … which is what makes it so scary. And it doesn’t help that the second-easiest schedule belongs to the …
Record: 72-58, lead NL East by 5½ games
Run differential: +53
Opponents' winning percentage: .439
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 17, 28
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 9 of 32
Key series: vs. Nationals, Oct. 2-4
Overview: The second-biggest division lead in baseball. The best 1-2 punch this side of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. And now the easiest schedule? It’s almost like the baseball gods felt bad for the past decade or so and decided to look past what miserable owners the Wilpons have been and reward Mets fans for not giving up. Of their 32 games, 23 are against teams with winning percentages of .415 or worse. The best team they play is the Yankees. They’ve got nicely staggered off-days. Really, things could not be any better for the Mets … which is what makes it so scary. And it doesn’t help that the second-easiest schedule belongs to the …
2. Washington Nationals
Record: 66-63, 5½ games back in NL East
Run differential: +33
Opponents' winning percentage: .460
Home/road: 18/15
Off-days: Sept. 10, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 9 of 33
Key series: at Cardinals, Aug. 31-Sept. 2
Overview: No other contender’s important series starts Monday like the Nationals’, though few others face the urgency of a turnaround like the Nationals. They’re chasing one of the hottest teams in baseball and doing so with injuries crushing them like they have all season. Still, once the Nationals get past the next 10 days, they’ve got a stretch unlike any other team faces: 20 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .414, plus two much-needed off-days. It’s the sort of break the Nationals need to muster any chance, though if they spend the next week and a half doing what they’ve done over the first five months of the season, it may be too late. It’s no fun digging an early hole from which you need to extract yourself, a feeling shared by the nearly-.500-at-the-break …
Record: 66-63, 5½ games back in NL East
Run differential: +33
Opponents' winning percentage: .460
Home/road: 18/15
Off-days: Sept. 10, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 9 of 33
Key series: at Cardinals, Aug. 31-Sept. 2
Overview: No other contender’s important series starts Monday like the Nationals’, though few others face the urgency of a turnaround like the Nationals. They’re chasing one of the hottest teams in baseball and doing so with injuries crushing them like they have all season. Still, once the Nationals get past the next 10 days, they’ve got a stretch unlike any other team faces: 20 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .414, plus two much-needed off-days. It’s the sort of break the Nationals need to muster any chance, though if they spend the next week and a half doing what they’ve done over the first five months of the season, it may be too late. It’s no fun digging an early hole from which you need to extract yourself, a feeling shared by the nearly-.500-at-the-break …
3. San Francisco Giants
Record: 69-61, 3½ games back in NL West
Run differential: +62
Opponents' winning percentage: .472
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 10, 17, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: vs. Dodgers, Sept. 27-Oct. 1
Overview: If anything can distract the Giants from the knowledge that Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence remain out with injuries, it’s that they play one team over .500 the rest of the season: the Dodgers, whom they’re chasing in the NL West. Otherwise, it’s a delicious diet of the West’s dregs (Colorado), its pretenders (San Diego and Arizona) and two out-of-division patsies (Cincinnati and Oakland). Better yet, 16 of the Giants’ 22 final games are at home, where they’re nine games over .500 this season. It doesn’t help the thunder missing from their lineup, but at least a good schedule gives them hopes of once again spending the postseason facing the …
Record: 69-61, 3½ games back in NL West
Run differential: +62
Opponents' winning percentage: .472
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 10, 17, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: vs. Dodgers, Sept. 27-Oct. 1
Overview: If anything can distract the Giants from the knowledge that Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence remain out with injuries, it’s that they play one team over .500 the rest of the season: the Dodgers, whom they’re chasing in the NL West. Otherwise, it’s a delicious diet of the West’s dregs (Colorado), its pretenders (San Diego and Arizona) and two out-of-division patsies (Cincinnati and Oakland). Better yet, 16 of the Giants’ 22 final games are at home, where they’re nine games over .500 this season. It doesn’t help the thunder missing from their lineup, but at least a good schedule gives them hopes of once again spending the postseason facing the …
4. Kansas City Royals
Record: 80-50, lead AL Central by 13 games
Run differential: +85
Opponents' winning percentage: .486
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 10, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: at Twins, Oct. 2-4
Overview: The Royals face two teams with above-.500 records: the Minnesota Twins, who 10 days ago were one below, and the Chicago Cubs, who Kansas City faces for a single makeup game. The rest is a panoply of mediocrity, no team’s winning percentage below Detroit’s .462 and none higher than Minnesota’s .515. Seeing as Kansas City’s record against sub-.500 teams this season is 51-21, the chances of the Royals locking down home-field advantage for the entire postseason looks almost as inevitable as their Central division title, which should be locked up by at latest Sept. 20. Better yet, if the division leaders hold, it means they can avoid a division series matchup against the …
Record: 80-50, lead AL Central by 13 games
Run differential: +85
Opponents' winning percentage: .486
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 10, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: at Twins, Oct. 2-4
Overview: The Royals face two teams with above-.500 records: the Minnesota Twins, who 10 days ago were one below, and the Chicago Cubs, who Kansas City faces for a single makeup game. The rest is a panoply of mediocrity, no team’s winning percentage below Detroit’s .462 and none higher than Minnesota’s .515. Seeing as Kansas City’s record against sub-.500 teams this season is 51-21, the chances of the Royals locking down home-field advantage for the entire postseason looks almost as inevitable as their Central division title, which should be locked up by at latest Sept. 20. Better yet, if the division leaders hold, it means they can avoid a division series matchup against the …
5. Houston Astros
Record: 72-59, lead AL West by 3 games
Run differential: +96
Opponents' winning percentage: .487
Home/road: 15/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 10, 24, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 16 of 31
Key series: at Rangers, Sept. 14-17
Overview: No team will be more rested than the Astros, whose four days off are the most of any contender. They’re going to need them, of course, with a 10-game mid-September trip that gets tougher as it goes on: A’s, Angels, Rangers. It’s part of a 22-game stretch vs. division opponents, against whom they’ve fared reasonably against this season, going 28-23. The Astros just need to start winning some games on the road, balancing a 45-21 home record at Minute Maid Park with a 27-38 mark away. Plus-70 of their run differential comes at home, and while overall it’s the second-best mark in the AL, it’s not even half that of the …
Record: 72-59, lead AL West by 3 games
Run differential: +96
Opponents' winning percentage: .487
Home/road: 15/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 10, 24, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 16 of 31
Key series: at Rangers, Sept. 14-17
Overview: No team will be more rested than the Astros, whose four days off are the most of any contender. They’re going to need them, of course, with a 10-game mid-September trip that gets tougher as it goes on: A’s, Angels, Rangers. It’s part of a 22-game stretch vs. division opponents, against whom they’ve fared reasonably against this season, going 28-23. The Astros just need to start winning some games on the road, balancing a 45-21 home record at Minute Maid Park with a 27-38 mark away. Plus-70 of their run differential comes at home, and while overall it’s the second-best mark in the AL, it’s not even half that of the …
6. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 74-56, lead AL East by 1½ games
Run differential: +193
Opponents' winning percentage: .492
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: vs. Yankees, Sept. 21-23
Overview: Just what the hottest team in baseball needs: a schedule with 25 of 32 teams under .500. Of course, two wins by Tampa Bay, three by Cleveland and four by Baltimore, and the Jays would be facing 23 of 32 at .500 or better, so that number is a bit misleading. Outside of a trip to Atlanta, the Blue Jays don’t have anything terribly easy left. It’s not exactly taxing, either, which oughta be the basis of the American League’s slogan this season. The AL: We’re OK! (And by OK, we mean mediocre.) For proof of that, point your compass to the south and follow it to the ballpark of the …
Record: 74-56, lead AL East by 1½ games
Run differential: +193
Opponents' winning percentage: .492
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 7 of 32
Key series: vs. Yankees, Sept. 21-23
Overview: Just what the hottest team in baseball needs: a schedule with 25 of 32 teams under .500. Of course, two wins by Tampa Bay, three by Cleveland and four by Baltimore, and the Jays would be facing 23 of 32 at .500 or better, so that number is a bit misleading. Outside of a trip to Atlanta, the Blue Jays don’t have anything terribly easy left. It’s not exactly taxing, either, which oughta be the basis of the American League’s slogan this season. The AL: We’re OK! (And by OK, we mean mediocre.) For proof of that, point your compass to the south and follow it to the ballpark of the …
7. Texas Rangers
Record: 68-61, lead second AL wild card by 1½ games
Run differential: -19
Opponents' winning percentage: .487
Home/road: 17/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 of 33
Key series: at Angels, Oct. 1-4
Overview: When GM Jon Daniels traded for Cole Hamels at the deadline, the idea was to pair him with Yu Darvish next season and let them run wild on the AL. The collapses of the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles changed the timetable and expectations of the Rangers, who now must overcome the fatigue of 33 games in 35 days. The only ones against .500-or-better teams are the Astros and Angels, and 17 of the Rangers’ final 23 come at home, where they’re actually quite a bit worse this season than on the road. In fact, the Rangers would have the best road record in baseball if not for the …
Record: 68-61, lead second AL wild card by 1½ games
Run differential: -19
Opponents' winning percentage: .487
Home/road: 17/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 of 33
Key series: at Angels, Oct. 1-4
Overview: When GM Jon Daniels traded for Cole Hamels at the deadline, the idea was to pair him with Yu Darvish next season and let them run wild on the AL. The collapses of the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles changed the timetable and expectations of the Rangers, who now must overcome the fatigue of 33 games in 35 days. The only ones against .500-or-better teams are the Astros and Angels, and 17 of the Rangers’ final 23 come at home, where they’re actually quite a bit worse this season than on the road. In fact, the Rangers would have the best road record in baseball if not for the …
8. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 84-46, lead NL Central by 4½ games
Run differential: +135
Opponents' winning percentage: .492
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 15 of 32
Key series: at Pirates, Sept. 28-30
Overview: If the Cardinals play the rest of the season at .500, they’ll still win 100 games. Continue at this pace and they’ll finish 105-57, and they’ve got a legitimate shot to best the franchise-record of 106 victories. Which, considering the injuries to Adam Wainwright and Matt Adams and Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk, is unfathomable. St. Louis’ schedule is a story of monsters and pushovers, with two series against the Pirates and Cubs buttressed by two facing the Reds and Brewers. Once the Cardinals get past the gauntlet of the next 10 days – Nationals, Pirates, Cubs at home – their remaining opponents’ combined winning percentage is .463. Come out of this homestand clean – and considering the Cardinals are 46-19 there, it’s well possible – and that 107 is within reach. It would put the Cardinals among the elite regular-season teams of all-time and exceed by five wins the best season ever from the …
Run differential: +135
Opponents' winning percentage: .492
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 15 of 32
Key series: at Pirates, Sept. 28-30
Overview: If the Cardinals play the rest of the season at .500, they’ll still win 100 games. Continue at this pace and they’ll finish 105-57, and they’ve got a legitimate shot to best the franchise-record of 106 victories. Which, considering the injuries to Adam Wainwright and Matt Adams and Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk, is unfathomable. St. Louis’ schedule is a story of monsters and pushovers, with two series against the Pirates and Cubs buttressed by two facing the Reds and Brewers. Once the Cardinals get past the gauntlet of the next 10 days – Nationals, Pirates, Cubs at home – their remaining opponents’ combined winning percentage is .463. Come out of this homestand clean – and considering the Cardinals are 46-19 there, it’s well possible – and that 107 is within reach. It would put the Cardinals among the elite regular-season teams of all-time and exceed by five wins the best season ever from the …
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 72-57, lead NL West by 3½ games
Run differential: +63
Opponents' winning percentage: .493
Home/road: 16/17
Off-days: Sept. 10, 17
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 13 of 33
Key series: at Giants, Sept. 28-Oct. 1
Overview: Now is where it starts getting tough. (Well, actually, it started Sunday night, when the Dodgers were no-hit for the second time in nine days, this one by Jake Arrieta.) Take out two series against the awful Rockies, and the Dodgers’ opponents have won at a .512 clip. Between that and just two days off, the Dodgers need to be well-rested, particularly considering they finish the season with games on 17 consecutive days. The good news: The furthest east they travel is Denver, a time-zone luxury afforded similarly to the …
Record: 72-57, lead NL West by 3½ games
Run differential: +63
Opponents' winning percentage: .493
Home/road: 16/17
Off-days: Sept. 10, 17
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 13 of 33
Key series: at Giants, Sept. 28-Oct. 1
Overview: Now is where it starts getting tough. (Well, actually, it started Sunday night, when the Dodgers were no-hit for the second time in nine days, this one by Jake Arrieta.) Take out two series against the awful Rockies, and the Dodgers’ opponents have won at a .512 clip. Between that and just two days off, the Dodgers need to be well-rested, particularly considering they finish the season with games on 17 consecutive days. The good news: The furthest east they travel is Denver, a time-zone luxury afforded similarly to the …
10. New York Yankees
Record: 72-57, lead first AL wild card by 4 games
Run differential: +77
Opponents' winning percentage: .504
Home/road: 18/15
Off-days: Sept. 3, 17
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 10 of 33
Key series: vs. Toronto, Sept. 10-13
Overview: Like the Blue Jays, the Yankees’ schedule is deceiving. Even though they play fewer than a third of their games against winning teams, the collective winning percentage of their opponents is a fair bit over .500. And like the Dodgers, their last day off is the 17th, forcing them into a stretch grind against AL East teams they’ve handled quite well this season (28-22). On the Yankees’ side is the most home games of any team as well as having the 18 sandwiched around their one three-city road trip that goes from St. Petersburg to Queens to Toronto. With a schedule like that, it’s nice the Yankees have almost the same cushion that one month ago today belonged to the …
Record: 72-57, lead first AL wild card by 4 games
Run differential: +77
Opponents' winning percentage: .504
Home/road: 18/15
Off-days: Sept. 3, 17
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 10 of 33
Key series: vs. Toronto, Sept. 10-13
Overview: Like the Blue Jays, the Yankees’ schedule is deceiving. Even though they play fewer than a third of their games against winning teams, the collective winning percentage of their opponents is a fair bit over .500. And like the Dodgers, their last day off is the 17th, forcing them into a stretch grind against AL East teams they’ve handled quite well this season (28-22). On the Yankees’ side is the most home games of any team as well as having the 18 sandwiched around their one three-city road trip that goes from St. Petersburg to Queens to Toronto. With a schedule like that, it’s nice the Yankees have almost the same cushion that one month ago today belonged to the …
11. Los Angeles Angels
Record: 65-65, 3½ games back of second AL wild card
Run differential: -18
Opponents' winning percentage: .504
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 10, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 20 of 32
Key series: vs. Dodgers, Sept. 7-9
Overview: Yes, the Angels have gone from three games up in the wild card on July 31 to a .500 jalopy today. Cleveland swept the Angels in three games over the weekend. Toronto swept them two series before that. They’ve lost 24 of 35. It’s no-alibi ugly. And now, after going to Oakland, the Angels return home to face a Rangers-Dodgers-Astros onslaught before going back on the road for a three-city trip. The Angels’ only sub-.500 games come against Oakland and Seattle, and those might not matter if they can’t pull themselves together over the next two weeks and understand how a team with the best player in the world and a $150 million opening day payroll can possibly look up in the wild-card standings to the …
Record: 65-65, 3½ games back of second AL wild card
Run differential: -18
Opponents' winning percentage: .504
Home/road: 15/17
Off-days: Sept. 3, 10, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 20 of 32
Key series: vs. Dodgers, Sept. 7-9
Overview: Yes, the Angels have gone from three games up in the wild card on July 31 to a .500 jalopy today. Cleveland swept the Angels in three games over the weekend. Toronto swept them two series before that. They’ve lost 24 of 35. It’s no-alibi ugly. And now, after going to Oakland, the Angels return home to face a Rangers-Dodgers-Astros onslaught before going back on the road for a three-city trip. The Angels’ only sub-.500 games come against Oakland and Seattle, and those might not matter if they can’t pull themselves together over the next two weeks and understand how a team with the best player in the world and a $150 million opening day payroll can possibly look up in the wild-card standings to the …
12. Minnesota Twins
Record: 67-63, 1½ games back of second AL wild card
Run differential: -7
Opponents' winning percentage: .511
Home/road: 16/17
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 10, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 of 33
Key series: vs. Angels, Sept. 17-20
Overview: This one feels like a bit of a sham candidacy, too, with the negative run differential and the helter-skelter winning-losing streaks. And yet if somehow the Twins can make it through the AL’s most difficult stretch schedule, nobody will say they lucked their way into the postseason. The upcoming nine-game road trip is brutal – Houston and Kansas City before a respite against the White Sox – and there aren’t any easy series from there on out, not even the Tigers, as bad as they looked over the weekend. Take the Twins’ six games against the Royals out, and opponents’ win at a far-less-scary .487 clip, although that’s cheating. Part of what makes their schedule so imposing is facing a wringer that includes uber-successful teams, a road trafficked likewise by the …
Record: 67-63, 1½ games back of second AL wild card
Run differential: -7
Opponents' winning percentage: .511
Home/road: 16/17
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 10, 21
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 of 33
Key series: vs. Angels, Sept. 17-20
Overview: This one feels like a bit of a sham candidacy, too, with the negative run differential and the helter-skelter winning-losing streaks. And yet if somehow the Twins can make it through the AL’s most difficult stretch schedule, nobody will say they lucked their way into the postseason. The upcoming nine-game road trip is brutal – Houston and Kansas City before a respite against the White Sox – and there aren’t any easy series from there on out, not even the Tigers, as bad as they looked over the weekend. Take the Twins’ six games against the Royals out, and opponents’ win at a far-less-scary .487 clip, although that’s cheating. Part of what makes their schedule so imposing is facing a wringer that includes uber-successful teams, a road trafficked likewise by the …
13. Chicago Cubs
Record: 74-55, lead second NL wild card by 5½ games
Run differential: +29
Opponents' winning percentage: .507
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 13 of 32
Key series: vs. Pirates, Sept. 25-27
Overview: The Cubs are allowed about 20 hours to celebrate Arrieta’s no-hitter before heading into the what one can argue is the toughest stretch schedule for any contender. On one hand, the Cubs do not play a single team whose winning percentage starts with a .5, which seems like a good thing. On the other, they’ve got 13 games against teams winning at a .612-or-better clip – six vs. St. Louis and Pittsburgh, with a makeup game against Kansas City – and their road series against the Cardinals and Pirates are part of a three-city road swing that sends them across time zones. The travel isn’t awful – most NL Central travel isn’t – but being part of the best division in baseball is. While the Mets and Nationals get to whip and nae-nae their way to the end of the season, it’s Olympic-level ballroom dancing for the Cubs and the …
Record: 74-55, lead second NL wild card by 5½ games
Run differential: +29
Opponents' winning percentage: .507
Home/road: 16/16
Off-days: Sept. 3, 14, 24
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 13 of 32
Key series: vs. Pirates, Sept. 25-27
Overview: The Cubs are allowed about 20 hours to celebrate Arrieta’s no-hitter before heading into the what one can argue is the toughest stretch schedule for any contender. On one hand, the Cubs do not play a single team whose winning percentage starts with a .5, which seems like a good thing. On the other, they’ve got 13 games against teams winning at a .612-or-better clip – six vs. St. Louis and Pittsburgh, with a makeup game against Kansas City – and their road series against the Cardinals and Pirates are part of a three-city road swing that sends them across time zones. The travel isn’t awful – most NL Central travel isn’t – but being part of the best division in baseball is. While the Mets and Nationals get to whip and nae-nae their way to the end of the season, it’s Olympic-level ballroom dancing for the Cubs and the …
14. Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 79-50, lead first NL wild card by 5½ games
Run differential: +81
Opponents' winning percentage: .501
Home/road: 13/19
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 14, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 15 of 32
Key series: at Cubs, Sept. 25-27
Overview: Even if their opponents’ winning percentage is slightly less imposing than other teams’, the Pirates face other potential stumbling blocks that make their huge cushion in the wild card evermore vital. Issue No. 1: Only one day off in September, which, though helped by resting the last day of August and first of October, is nevertheless trying. Issue No. 2: Two three-city road trips. Unlucky teams have one jaunt that long. The Pirates start their stretch with a nine-gamer, go home for two series (including one against the Cubs) and head back out for 10 on the road, followed by three games at home against the Cardinals, who at that point may already have 100 victories. It makes their 17 games against sub-.500 teams – lookin’ at you, Brewers twice, Reds twice and Rockies – that much more important. In an ideal world where record matters more than geography, none of this would be all that important since the Pirates would be safely in the division series and the …
Record: 79-50, lead first NL wild card by 5½ games
Run differential: +81
Opponents' winning percentage: .501
Home/road: 13/19
Off-days: Aug. 31, Sept. 14, Oct. 1
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 15 of 32
Key series: at Cubs, Sept. 25-27
Overview: Even if their opponents’ winning percentage is slightly less imposing than other teams’, the Pirates face other potential stumbling blocks that make their huge cushion in the wild card evermore vital. Issue No. 1: Only one day off in September, which, though helped by resting the last day of August and first of October, is nevertheless trying. Issue No. 2: Two three-city road trips. Unlucky teams have one jaunt that long. The Pirates start their stretch with a nine-gamer, go home for two series (including one against the Cubs) and head back out for 10 on the road, followed by three games at home against the Cardinals, who at that point may already have 100 victories. It makes their 17 games against sub-.500 teams – lookin’ at you, Brewers twice, Reds twice and Rockies – that much more important. In an ideal world where record matters more than geography, none of this would be all that important since the Pirates would be safely in the division series and the …
15. New York Mets would be scratching to hold onto a wild-card spot. Reality is, the NL East exists, and the fact that it is a stinking baseball wasteland should not completely mitigate what the Mets are on the verge of doing.
They’ve got some kinks to work out – the two main questions are how much Matt Harvey will pitch and how Steven Matz will figure in to the rotation, if at all – and the Nationals, with their talent, still seem like a giant scheduled for an 8 a.m. flight that still hasn’t woken up by noon.
The Mets are hitting and catching the ball better than anyone in the second half, according to FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement calculation. And if they go into the playoffs with Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey (in that order or reverse) for Games 1 and 2 against Kershaw and Greinke, it has a chance to be the best division series since the wild card was introduced in 1995.
Los Angeles needs to do its part. And the Mets simply need to take advantage of the bequest that is their schedule and not add to a history in the last decade chock full of ignominy. For the first time in a long time, they don’t look like the Mets whose nickname is preceded by an LOL. They’ve got five weeks to make sure that incarnation gets buried for good.
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