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TCU is back in the bubble picture after beating No. 1 Kansas, but still has work to do. (Getty)
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Of all the topsy-turvy bubble stories over the past five weeks, amid all the big wins and horrific losses, there was one intriguing tale — a quiet, gradual tale — that didn’t garner much attention: The Big 12, at one point potentially an eight-bid league, was skidding towards only five.
But in a span of nine hours on quarterfinal Thursday at the Big 12 tournament, that narrative zoomed into reverse. Eighth-seeded TCU played its way back into at-large contention with a stunning upset of No. 1 Kansas in the afternoon. In the nightcap, Kansas State went right at second-seeded Baylor and knocked off the sixth-ranked Bears.
In those nine hours, the Big 12 went from a five-bid league to one with the potential for seven. Both the Horned Frogs and Wildcats not only improved their bubble standing; they advanced to Friday’s semifinals, where they’ll be able to improve it even more. Here’s a look at the two biggest bubble winners of the day:
TCU STORMS BACK INTO BUBBLE MIX
No team’s season was more representative of the Big 12’s decline than TCU. Exactly a month ago, the Horned Frogs were 17-7, 6-5 in the conference, and a solid “in” according to most bracketologists. Then they lost seven games in a row — they just didn’t make headlines because six of the defeats were to NCAA tournament-caliber teams.
An entire month of winless basketball, however, nudged TCU off the bubble, step-by-step. With 29 days separating them from their last win, the Horned Frogs came to Kansas City in need of a Big 12 tournament run. A win Wednesday over Oklahoma gave them life.
A day later, TCU became the talk of champ week when it shocked No. 1 Kansas in its Big 12 quarterfinal. But how high did the upset propel Jamie Dixon’s team?
It vaulted them into at-large contention, but there is still work to do. TCU’s RPI remains in the 60s. It lost twice as many conference games as it won, and didn’t beat any of the Big 12’s big three during the regular season. Its non-conference schedule offered nothing to boast about. The most impressive data point was a home victory over Illinois State.
The good news for TCU, however, is that one quality win elicits opportunities for more. The Horned Frogs get a crack at scorching hot Iowa State in Friday’s semifinal. A win there would make things interesting. It also, of course, would bring them one win away from an automatic bid.
WIN AND IN FOR KANSAS STATE?
Kansas State bellied up to arguably the most physical team in the Big 12 and simply beat that team. This was not a fluke. This was not a plucky underdog. The Wildcats looked like a team that belonged in the NCAA tournament. The question, of course, is this: Does their résumé agree?
After a second win over what will be a 2- or 3-seed, the answer is probably yes. Kansas State also boasts a win over West Virginia and a road victory at Oklahoma State. The non-conference schedule was brutal, and is a noticeable scar on a decent conference résumé, but those four wins represent the exact type of quality that most bubble teams lack.
The Wildcats could certainly use another win over West Virginia on Friday. But only the selection committee truly knows if that’s a necessity.
MICHIGAN SOARS INTO D.C., KNOCKS OUT ILLINOIS
On the morning of the first bubble showdown at the 2017 Big Ten tournament, six hours before tipoff, Illinois, needing a win to leap from the wrong side of the cut line into the field, woke up at its hotel in Washington, D.C., and prepared for the biggest game of its season.
Its opponent, Michigan, was hundreds of miles away, on a bus to Detroit Metropolitan Airport. There, it would board a plane, fly to D.C., and board another bus to the Verizon Center after 20 hours of travel hell.
And there, in its practice uniforms, with the normal threads left behind on an evacuated plane, the Wolverines swooped in and put on a clinic, beating Illinois by 20 and effectively knocking the Illini off the NCAA tournament bubble.
Given the circumstances, it was as impressive a performance as possible for Michigan, who erased any doubt over its bubble status and solidified itself in the field. The Wolverines look like an 8- or 9-seed with some serious upset potential.
But Illinois, after choking at Rutgers last Saturday in its final regular season game, is headed to the NIT, where it will complete its fourth straight season without an NCAA tournament bid. Its offensive attack stalled against one of the weaker defensive teams in the conference. Malcolm Hill, an all-Big Ten talent, had just four points on 1-of-8 shooting.
The Illini’s collapse will again incite questions about John Groce’s job security. It also narrows down the field of potential NCAA tournament participants from the Big Ten — a field that would eventually be further narrowed Thursday evening.
In fact, Thursday promises to be a hectic and pivotal day on the bubble around the country, not just in the Big Ten. Here’s a (constantly updating) look at the biggest winners and losers among teams trying to battle their way into March Madness.
THURSDAY BUBBLE WINNERS
Xavier (21-12, 9-9, KenPom 44, RPI 34): The Musketeers upset Butler in the Big East quarterfinals, and in doing so got their first win over a team not named DePaul since Feb. 4. That means two things: 1. Xavier accumulated most of the goods on its résumé prior to Edmond Sumner’s season-ending injury; since Dec. 31, against teams outside the Big East’s bottom three, Xavier had won just two games. But, 2. It got a victory it desperately needed at Madison Square Garden Thursday night. Chris Mack’s team is still a bit of an enigma when it comes to tourney hopes because of its pre- and post-Sumner injury splits, but Thursday’s win would seem to propel it back over the cut line and into the field.
Kansas State (20-12, 8-10, KenPom 32, RPI 59): The Wildcats seemed to be a consensus “first four out” team headed into Thursday. A win over a top-10 team would seemingly flip them to the other side of the bubble. But the résumé still has plenty of holes. Kansas State’s ticket isn’t punched just yet.
Northwestern (22-10, 10-8, KenPom 35, RPI 54): Northwestern is in. The Wildcats demolished Rutgers, avoided a bad loss, and will head to the program’s first NCAA tournament ever regardless of the result of tomorrow’s quarterfinal against Maryland.
Vanderbilt (18-14, 10-8, KenPom 41, RPI 46): Every win, no matter whom it comes against, is crucial for the Commodores right now. They got one against Texas A&M Thursday evening in the SEC tournament, and now sit at 18 overall on the season. That could be enough. Vandy will get a crack at completing a three-game sweep of Florida in the quarterfinals on Friday. A win there, and Bryce Drew’s team is in. With a loss, it will remain on the bubble, but probably leaning toward the right side of it.
California (21-11, 10-8, KenPom 58, RPI 55): The Golden Bears stayed alive in Vegas, and in the race for an NCAA tournament bid, with a Pac-12 quarterfinal victory over Utah. Like TCU, and like other teams further down this list, Cal didn’t elevate itself into the tournament with a win; the most meaningful aspect of Thursday’s win is that it sets up a golden opportunity for a signature win against Oregon on Friday. If Cal gets that one, then it’s in. If it doesn’t, its Selection Sunday wait will be agonizing.
Indiana (18-14, 7-11, KenPom 47, RPI 80): The Hoosiers steamrolled Iowa in the second half of an elimination game Thursday night. However, they need at least one more win, if not two or three, to have hope come Sunday. They’ll play Wisconsin Friday, and with a quarterfinal win, would play either Maryland or Northwestern on Saturday.
Seton Hall (21-10, 10-8, KenPom 52, RPI 37): The Pirates are almost definitely “in” after a Big East quarterfinal victory over Marquette. It was their fifth win in a row, and shored up a solid, even if unspectacular, résumé.
TCU (19-14, 6-12, KenPom 35, RPI 65): The Horned Frogs are a good basketball team. That seems to be pretty clear. But on the balance of the season, they don’t deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. Not yet.
Michigan State (19-13, 10-8, KenPom 50, RPI 49): The Spartans avoided a bad loss to Penn State by easing to a 78-51 victory. In doing so, they probably locked up a bid, though they’ll need a win over Minnesota on Friday in the quarters to feel absolutely secure.
Georgia (19-13, 9-9, KenPom 55, RPI 53): The Bulldogs beat Tennessee in the second round of the SEC tournament. That, on its own, isn’t much. But the result of the win is crucial: Georgia now gets a shot at Kentucky, and at a résumé-defining win, in the quarterfinals. Mark Fox’s team is well on the wrong side of the bubble for now, but has a chance to play itself into contention.
Michigan (21-11, 10-8, KenPom 24, RPI 42): The Wolverines are in. It can play its way into the top half of the field with a win over Purdue Friday.
Other bubble winners: Middle Tennessee State (beat Texas-San Antonio, Conference USA quarters)
THURSDAY BUBBLE LOSERS
Providence (20-12, 10-8, KenPom 54, RPI 53): A 70-58 loss to Creighton in the Big East quarters isn’t ideal, but it isn’t going to keep Providence out of the field. Unfortunately for the Friars, though, their full résumé could. While we were engrossed in their six-game winning streak heading in to the Big East tournament, we forgot that their ledger outside of the late-February run was pretty barren. Providence will be right on the edge of the tournament when it comes time for the committee to make its final decision.
Iowa (18-14, 10-8, KenPom 65, RPI 72): The Hawkeyes have a better résumé than you probably think. They recently won back-to-back road games at Maryland and Wisconsin, and a December victory over Iowa State is looking better and better. But, all that being said, an ugly loss to Indiana probably knocks Iowa out of contention.
Marquette (19-12, 10-8, KenPom 29, RPI 58): The Golden Eagles will be sweating through the next 72 hours after a Big East quarterfinal loss to Seton Hall. Their 8-7 record against the top 50 is quite deceiving, with many of those wins agains the back half of the top 50, and surely the committee will recognize that. Against the top 100, Marquette is just 9-10. Against the top 200? Only 12-12. It actually got some help in the Thursday night session at Madison Square Garden, though: Four of Marquette’s five most impressive wins over Creighton and Xavier, and both the Bluejays and Musketeers advanced to the semifinals. At least one will progress to the final. If there’s a saving grace for Marquette’s, it’s that those four wins look slightly more impressive.
Illinois (18-14, 8-10, KenPom 69, RPI 62): Barring carnage elsewhere, the Illini look to be out. They have five wins over likely tournament teams, but 8-11 in conference play, including Thursday’s conference tournament lost, isn’t good enough in a down year for the Big Ten. The loss to Rutgers, plus two to Penn State and a non-conference loss to Winthrop, will ultimately doom them.
Other bubble losers: Utah (lost to Cal, Pac-12 quarters)
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