World Series preview: Can the Mets put a stop to the Royals' redemption?

The stage is finally set! After playing 162 games apiece and enduring two lengthy postseason runs, the Kansas City Royals will meet the New York Mets in the World Series.

While both teams have gone nearly the same amount of time without a World Series title (the Royals last won in 1985, while the Mets last won in 1986), the narrative surrounding both clubs is quite different.

On the one side, you have the experienced Royals. It still seems strange to say that about the franchise, but it's true now. Kansas City reached the postseason as a wild-card team in 2014, and then pulled off a miraculous run to the World Series. Even after that happened, no one really believed in them.

The Royals were projected to win just 72 games, according to Baseball Prospectus. There were legitimate reasons for that. Kansas City lost James Shields and Billy Butler in the offseason, and didn't make any huge additions. After barely squeaking into the playoffs in 2014, it looked like the road to October would be much more difficult in 2015.

That was, obviously, not the case. The Royals proved themselves to be a frighteningly great team in 2015. Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez found a way to replace Shields, while Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer continued to develop into stars. It also helps that Kendrys Morales experienced a nice comeback season.

On the other hand, you have the upstart Mets. Optimistic fans, and analysts who squinted really hard, could see the makings of a strong team prior to the start of the year, but few actually picked them to make the playoffs in 2015.

That's because the club was relying on a fair amount of youth. Matt Harvey was coming back from Tommy John surgery, but would be limited. Jacob deGrom had to repeat last year's success. Noah Sydergaard and Steven Matz looked like useful pieces, but no one knew when they would be up.

Offensively, there was no Yoenis Cespedes yet. The team was relying on older veterans like Curtis Granderson, Michael Cuddyer and David Wright. Michael Conforto wasn't much of a consideration at this time, while the team was hoping Lucas Duda would repeat and Travis d'Arnaud would finally develop.

One team made it here a year before anyone expected, while the other proved last season's success wasn't a fluke. Can the upstart Mets unseat the now veteran, experienced Royals? In a few days, we'll have the answer.

SCHEDULE
Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 27 in Kansas City, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 28 in Kansas City, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 3: Friday, Oct. 30 in New York, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 31 in New York, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 5*: Sunday, Nov. 1 in New York, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 6*: Tuesday in Kansas City, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Game 7*: Wednesday in Kansas City, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

PREVIOUSLY
The Mets and Royals last met during the regular season in 2013. Kansas City won that series 2-1 at Citi Field. Two of the games were decided in extra innings. Obviously, both teams are much different now, so those results have no bearing on this series.

The teams have never met in the World Series. In fact, this is first time a World Series didn't include at least one team that existed in 1903, which is the first year the World Series was played.

 

PITCHING
Game 1: Matt Harvey (13-8, 2.71) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55)
Game 2: Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54) vs. vs. Johnny Cueto (11-13, 3.44)
Game 3: Yordano Ventura (13-8, 4.08) vs. Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 3.24)
Game 4: Chris Young (11-6, 3.06) vs. Steven Matz (4-0, 2.27)
Game 5: Volquez vs. Matt Harvey
Game 6: Jacob deGrom vs. Cueto
Game 7: Noah Syndergaard vs. Ventura

 

The pitching matchup is interesting. The Mets have a deeper and simply better rotation, as they boast four elite young arms and have Bartolo Colon on standby in case of emergency. The Royals rotation is more of a hit-or-miss group, with Johnny Cueto and Volquez especially demonstrating low floors but high ceilings in terms of production in a given outing.

The Mets will lead off with Harvey, who was at his absolute best in NLCS Game 1 against the Chicago Cubs. He'll be followed by the All-Star deGrom, who has been shaky early in his last two starts but has been the Mets' best starter the entire season. Syndergaard and Matz are locked into their slot as well, and rightfully so. Manager Terry Collins says this rotation won't budge regardless of circumstances.

The Royals will counter with Volquez in Game 1 followed by Cueto in Game 2. Cueto's had a tough time with Kansas City (more on that in a minute), but can absolutely dominate when he's on. Yordano Ventura will start Game 3. Volquez and Ventura are solid players, but lack the upside of the Mets' big four. Depending on how things go for the trio early on, it will be interesting to see if Ned Yost makes some changes to his rotation if the series goes six or seven games.

As for the bullpens, the clear edge goes to Kansas City based on depth and dominance. Even without Greg Holland, manager Ned Yost can throw out a late-inning wall with Wade Davis, Ryan Madson and Kelvin Herrera. Collins has to be a little more creative getting the ball to closer Jeurys Familia sometimes, but he's making it work.

 

 

THREE KEYS FOR THE ROYALS

Stay relentless: Kansas City's lineup against New York's starting rotation is going to be a fascinating matchup. The Royals strike out less than any other team in baseball, but if any group of pitchers can challenge that, it'll be these Mets. That's why Kansas City will need to stay aggressive when opportunities arise and keep applying as much pressure on New York's defense as possible. That means swinging in good counts. That means taking the extra base. It basically means keep being the Royals, which we figure they'll do.

Score early, lead late: It's worth repeating in every matchup because Kansas City's bullpen is in a class by itself and it's the formula that works so well. Getting the ball to Davis, Madson and Herrera with a lead in the sixth or seventh is Yost's goal in every game, and there's no reason to believe that strategy won't continue being effective in the World Series. The loaded Toronto Blue Jays may have tested the Royals in ALCS Game 6, but the Royals ultimately reigned.

Johnny (Cueto) be good: The Royals acquired Cueto for starts like this. He absolutely came through in a do-or-die ALDS Game 5, but he's faltered in several other big spots for Kansas City, including in the ALCS. They need one good outing from Cueto in this series to win it. If he gives them two, they should be golden. If he gives them zero, that puts a ton of pressure on Kansas City's offense, which already has its hands plenty full with the Mets' rotation.

 

 

THREE KEYS FOR THE METS
Worry about Harvey? We've reached the point where it appears Matt Harvey is going to give the Mets as many innings as he can in order to win a World Series championship. There was a ton of concern over a potential innings limit as the regular season wore down, causing many to wonder whether Harvey would really be available during the playoffs. That no longer seems to be an issue. Harvey is slated for Game 1, meaning he'll pitch at least twice in the series. Any concern about his innings being limited have been thrown out the window at this point. He's giving New York all that he has in order to get a ring.

Daniel Murphy is Barry Bonds: Stopping Daniel Murphy has become an impossible task for teams during the playoffs. The 30-year-old has turned into a monster at the plate, hitting an incredible seven home runs throughout the postseason. This led to the Cubs intentionally walking Murphy at times in order to get to Cespedes. Even now, that seems like an insane thing to write. Figuring out how to cool him down, or at least limiting his production, will be key for Kansas City. We're actually not sure it can be done at this point, but we expect the Royals will try really hard.

Get Yoenis right: In order to win the World Series, the Mets are going to need some strong contributions from Yoenis Cespedes. The outfielder is coming off an average performance in the NLCS. His batting average and on-base percentage for the series were fine, but he didn't hit for power. On top of that, he suffered a shoulder injury in the final game of that series. He's expected to be fine by Game 1, but no one is sure how effective he'll be at the plate. He remains a major key, and a big question, for New York.

 

FIVE IMPORTANT NUMBERS• .284 — The Royals' batting average against pitches that averaged 95 mph or more. That figure ranked first in the league. Coincidentally, the Mets led the league in pitches 95 mph and over. The Mets pitching is perceived as a major strength in this matchup, but the Royals have the perfect offense to counter hard throwers.

• .219 — The Mets' batting average in the same situation. That's going to matter, as the Royals finished second in the league in pitches that were 95 mph or more. As expected, it appears pitching is going to determine this World Series.

• 2.72 — The Royals' bullpen ERA. That figure ranked second in the league, just behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. If Kansas City has a lead going into the seventh inning, it's basically game over for opponents. That shouldn't come as a surprise with Wade Davis and his 0.94 ERA lurking.

• 5.2 — The walk rate of the Mets' starters. That figure ranked first in the league. The Mets don't issue a lot of free passes. The Royals, however, don't rely on walks as a big part of their offense. That means we're probably going to see the Mets tempting the Royals by throwing hard fastballs in the zone. It's going to be a true strength-vs.-strength matchup.

• 29 — The number of years it's been since either of these franchise have won the World Series. Regardless of the result, one fairly frustrated fanbase is going to celebrate after years of futility. A victory is going to feel well-deserved for both clubs.