Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury has been a huge topic of conversation, but from watching the film of last week’s game I can tell you that there’s nothing wrong with his arm.
The Green Bay Packers did some things last week to adjust for Rodgers’ injury, most notably that he didn’t take a snap under center. They didn’t want him dropping back and risk injuring himself further. But before the Packers play the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC championship game, it’s worth noting that Rodgers was very sharp as usual last week, injury or not.
Working mostly out of the shotgun in the pistol formation and calling almost the entire game from the line of scrimmage without huddling, Rodgers was able to move within the pocket – stepping up in the pocket on a touchdown to Andrew Quarless and moving to his left on a touchdown to Richard Rodgers in the fourth quarter – but mostly he played well by seeing the field tremendously, and getting the ball to his receivers with tremendous arm strength.
Here’s what I mean about his arm being just fine. Late in the second quarter, against the Dallas Cowboys’ “Cover 3” zone, Jordy Nelson’s deep post lifted cornerback Brandon Carr and Randall Cobb ran a corner route underneath to the open void on the outside. That’s a great “Cover 3” beater, but you still have to get the ball there, and Rodgers threw off his back foot 40 yards on a line across the field to hit Cobb for a 31-yard gain. It was a really impressive throw.
The 13-yarder to Richard Rodgers in the fourth quarter also came against “Cover 3.” Rodgers moved out of the pocket to his left, got his body turned and his feet on balance and drilled a strike to Richard Rodgers crossing the back of the end zone. Aaron Rodgers needed velocity and accuracy to beat cornerback Sterling Moore on the back side.
If anyone says that arm strength doesn’t matter in the NFL, keep this play in mind. It was a touchdown because of Rodgers’ great arm.
What will happen on Sunday when the Packers play at the Seahawks? I expect the first quarter to be a probing one for the Packers offense. I expect them to line up in a lot of formations – Nelson in the tight slot or Cobb in the backfield, for example – to see how the Seahawks react and match up.
Seattle is a foundation “Cover 3” team, but they’ll run some “man free” as well, which they did at times against the Carolina Panthers’ “11” personnel (one back, one tight end) last week. If the Seahawks run more man defense, I think Cobb becomes a bigger factor for the Packers. They like to line him up in different spots, including in the backfield, but would not be a big deal against the Seahawks’ disciplined zone. They’ll just pick up Cobb as part of their zone coverage.
I also don’t assume the Packers will ignore cornerback Richard Sherman’s side of the field, like they famously did in Week 1. You can’t play that way. I figure the Packers will change that plan this time around.
Seahawks offense vs. Packers defense
I thought Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson played very well last week, and he did a lot of it from the pocket, especially on third down.
Early in the third quarter, Wilson did a very good job of progression reading from the pocket to find Paul Richardson on third and 3. Wilson looked to his right to the post/wheel combination, but that was taken away by the Panthers’ zone coverage. Then he came back to the middle to hit Richardson on an in-breaker from the back side. Doug Baldwin’s drag route from the same side as Richardson occupied Luke Kuechly just enough to create the passing lane to Richardson.
It bears watching to see how the Packers play this game. One thing that is mistaken is Clay Matthews’ role in the defense. He doesn’t play inside linebacker full time now. In the Packers’ base he plays outside, when they run a nickel defense he’s inside, and he’ll line up as an edge rusher in the dime.
It’s tough to predict what the Packers will do, because defensive coordinator Dom Capers will switch things up. Just because you run a base offense doesn’t mean he’ll run his base defense. We’ll see how the Packers think they match up best against Seattle’s offense.
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