When teams come together in training camp, most of them have a belief in a foundation, and a way they want to play.
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick doesn’t seem like he’s a believer in, "We have to play this way to be successful."
I think the way a team plays tells you what the coaches think about the team’s ability and what they’re capable of. Belichick feels the Patriots are capable of doing whatever they have to do to beat a specific opponent.
Their approaches against last week’s opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, and the regular-season game against this week’s opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, shows they can and will adjust – sometimes to extreme measures.
Against Baltimore, the Patriots began to shift how they wanted to play. As the first half went on they ran more spread formations out of base personnel. They played more up-tempo, with more no-huddle and some empty sets. The Patriots created difficult matchups in the slot out of the base spread formations, often with a linebacker on a receiver. They used quick drops, quick throws and sustained drives.
And the Patriots, who had 27 called passes and seven called runs in the first half (not counting a Tom Brady kneel down), decided in the second half to ditch the run game altogether. There was more quick drops and quick throws into short voids in the Ravens predominant zone coverage. And Brady did a great job executing the offense.
A touchdown to Rob Gronkowski in the third quarter showed how much control Brady was in. The Ravens showed man coverage across the board with an alert for “zero blitz,” meaning there would be no deep safety. Brady knew it was “zero blitz” because safety Darian Stewart moved up to the line of scrimmage late in the play clock. Gronkowski was the “X iso” against safety Will Hill. Brady signaled for Gronkowski to run a quick slant – it was a great example of NFL quarterbacking.
By the time it was done, the Patriots had thrown the ball every play in the second half, aside from one Brady sneak and three kneel downs at the end. They felt that was how to beat the Ravens, by getting to their secondary. The approach was completely different against the Colts in Week 11.
In that game, the Patriots figured they could run on the Colts’ front seven. They ran sets with six offensive linemen as a big part of the game plan. Running back Jonas Gray had 37 attempts and 32 came with six offensive linemen, and almost all were between the tackles. Gray had 201 rushing yards in a win. In that game, and the playoff game against the Colts last season, the Patriots have rushed for a total of 480 yards.
The Patriots’ offense is very game and opponent specific. A lot of teams, if they tried to change like the Patriots do, the results would be disastrous. But the Patriots are capable of playing much different styles. Maybe when Brady is done, if Belichick is still coaching and Jimmy Garoppolo is playing quarterback, the Patriots won’t be doing this. But Belichick certainly thinks they can do it now.
That leads into this week’s game. Based on the last two games, you’d think the Patriots would be run heavy. But you just never know with Belichick. And the Colts defense is much better now. Linebackers Jerrell Freeman and D’Qwell Jackson are playing much better lately, as is the defense as a whole. You can’t assume the Patriots will do something because they’ve done it before against the same opponent.
Colts offense vs. Patriots defense
The other side of the matchup has some interesting components. In the first meeting, the Patriots mostly matched up cornerback Brandon Browner with tight end Coby Fleener, cornerback Kyle Arrington was on T.Y. Hilton and cornerback Darrelle Revis was on Reggie Wayne.
But, again, this is the Patriots, and things can change.
I don’t know that Revis will shadow Wayne, who hasn’t been a big part of the Colts’ offense lately. And the Patriots are playing a different style of defense than they were playing in Week 11. In that game against the Colts they ran a lot of nickel defense with four cornerbacks with safety Devin McCourty. In the last month or so they have evolved. McCourty is matching up on tight ends. That’s what they did against Baltimore. They’ve then run a lot of “2 man” with Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon as the deep safeties. That’s a change from back in Week 11.
You can look at what the Patriots have done in the past for clues on how they’ll play a team in a rematch, but it’s usually a mistake to try to predict what they’ll do on either side of the ball.
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