CAN WE TRUST YOU?
The major conference tournaments tip off in a month, so it’s time for armchair bracketologists to start eyeballing potential March breakthrough teams and busts. As it stands right now, a lot of teams that figure to be highly seeded will be trying to overcome sketchy March track records. The Minutes applies the Trust Meter to five of them:
Villanova (1). On Monday the Wildcats moved up to No. 1 in the AP and USA Today polls for the first time in school history. They’re also No. 1 in the RPI, Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and with Jeff Sagarin, too. That’s quite a consensus around another excellent ensemble cast orchestrated by Jay Wright.
Current Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.
The problem: This also is a program that has flamed out rather spectacularly in its past five NCAA tournament appearances. ‘Nova is 3-5 in those tourneys with zero Sweet 16 appearances, despite getting a No. 1 seed last year and No. 2 seeds in 2014 and 2010. Villanova was No. 5 in the pre-tourney Pomeroy ratings last year and No. 6 the year before, then was busted out by North Carolina State in ’15 and eventual national champion Connecticut in ‘14. The selection committee is tasked with trying to forget past performance and seed based on this year’s results, but that could be difficult with Villanova’s glaring recent pratfalls.
Coach’s Final Four experience: One, in 2009.
Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Baghdad Bob.
Maryland (2). Villanova got 11 first-place votes in the USA Today Top 25, but so did the Terrapins, who are No. 2 in both polls. After going a long time without big victories, Maryland’s résumé is getting stronger by the week: competitive road losses to North Carolina, Michigan and Michigan State don’t hurt; there are quality wins in recent weeks over Iowa and Purdue; and earlier road/neutral victories over UConn and Wisconsin are gaining currency. Current Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 3.
The problem: Maryland hasn’t made the NCAA Sweet 16 since 2003, despite being seeded to do so four times (last year, 2010, ‘07 and ’04). Turgeon hasn’t made the Sweet 16 in his last five NCAA trips, one at Maryland and four at Texas A&M. Last time he got that far: 2006, when he was at Wichita State.
Coach’s Final Four experience: none.
Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Oil change technician who always says you need a new air filter.
Iowa (3). The Hawkeyes have been one of the biggest success stories of the season. The résumé is very solid. At 19-4, they have no bad losses (neutral site to Dayton and Notre Dame, road to Iowa State and Maryland), swept Michigan State and Purdue, and beat Wichita State on a neutral floor. Fran McCaffrey is playing a lot of guys as usual, but has a potent 1-2 scoring punch in Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok.
Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.
The problem: Iowa and postseason basketball have not gotten along well in recent times. Under McCaffrey the Hawkeyes are 2-5 in the Big Ten tourney and 1-2 in the NCAAs. Iowa hasn’t won more than a single game in the Big Ten tourney in a decade and hasn’t made an NCAA Sweet 16 since 1999.
Coach’s Final Four experience: none.
Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Used car salesman.
Virginia (4). A bunch of very good wins (Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, Louisville) cancel out a handful of pretty bad losses (George Washington, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech). The Cavaliers have won six straight games after a 2-3 start in the ACC, and Tony Bennett continues to mercilessly tempo opponents into submission.
Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 2.
The problem: Virginia was a No. 1 seed in 2014 and lost in the Sweet 16. It was a No. 2 seed last year and lost in the second round. Cavaliers haven’t been past the Sweet 16 since 1995 and haven’t been to the Final Four since 1984.
Coach’s Final Four experience: none.
Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Salesman in charge of explaining cell phone service plan.
Oklahoma (5). First significant hiccup of the season for the Sooners came Saturday, and the 11-point loss to Kansas State knocked them off the top of the polls. But they bounced right back Monday with a last-second win over surging Texas and there are plenty of other credits on the Oklahoma balance sheet: road/neutral wins over Villanova, Baylor, LSU and Creighton; home wins over Iowa State, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Lon Kruger’s team is one of the most entertaining in the country – they shoot it very well, pass it adeptly and play at a fast pace.
Yahoo Big Board seeding: No. 1.
The problem: Under Kruger, Oklahoma is 1-4 in the Big 12 tournament and 2-3 in the NCAAs. Kruger hasn’t taken a team past the Sweet 16 in 22 years.
Coach’s Final Four experience: One, in 1994, while at Florida.
Trust Meter reading, on a scale of 1 to Politician: Friend who says, “Call you later” and never does.
SHAKING UP THE ESTABLISHED ORDER
Have you seen the conference standings? There are a lot of unfamiliar names in high places. The Minutes breaks down what could be a remaking of the hierarchy of Power 5 leagues:
Oregon (6). Current spot in the Pac-12 standings: First, at 9-2, with a 1 ½-game lead over USC. Ducks’ last Pac-12 title: 2002. Oregon figured to have graduate transfer Dylan Ennis starting at point guard, but he suffered a foot injury after playing just two games. Jumping into a primary ball-handling role has been 6-7 sophomore Dillon Brooks, who leads the team in scoring and assists and might be the Pac-12 Player of the Year at this point. Ducks still have four road games left, trips to the Bay Area and Los Angeles, but they’ve been on a dominant run the last three weeks.
Oregon (6). Current spot in the Pac-12 standings: First, at 9-2, with a 1 ½-game lead over USC. Ducks’ last Pac-12 title: 2002. Oregon figured to have graduate transfer Dylan Ennis starting at point guard, but he suffered a foot injury after playing just two games. Jumping into a primary ball-handling role has been 6-7 sophomore Dillon Brooks, who leads the team in scoring and assists and might be the Pac-12 Player of the Year at this point. Ducks still have four road games left, trips to the Bay Area and Los Angeles, but they’ve been on a dominant run the last three weeks.
Louisville (7). Last ACC title: never. The Cardinals slid out of a first-place tie Monday night in a hard-fought loss at Duke, but at 8-3 remain right in the race. The problem is a remaining schedule that includes five more games against teams in the Pomeroy top 40, three of them on the road. However, if any ACC team should have maximum motivation down the regular-season stretch, it’s the one that isn’t going anywhere when said stretch is over.
Iowa. Last Big Ten title: 1979. If the Hawkeyes can get a victory at Indiana on Thursday, they’ll have a good shot at winning the conference. The remaining schedule after visiting Bloomington: Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana at home; Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan away. If the Hawkeyes falter, the league might be won by second-place Maryland. The Terrapins’ last Big Ten title: never.
West Virginia (8). Last Big 12 title: never. The Mountaineers had a great week, beating Iowa State in Ames and Baylor in Morgantown to take the lead in the league. But the rest of the schedule is rough: at Kansas Tuesday, at Texas the following Tuesday, home against Oklahoma and Iowa State, at Baylor March 5. The league could still end up back in Kansas’ control – as usual – when all is said and done.
LSU (9). Last SEC title: 2009. There was justifiable lamentation about the Tigers’ 7-5 start to the season, but an 8-2 conference mark has at least pushed them into the bubble discussion and into the lead in the uninspiring SEC. Plenty of lose-able games remain, though, starting Wednesday at South Carolina and then home Saturday against
Texas A&M (10) – which, if LSU stumbles, could win its first-ever SEC title.
WHO CAN CARRY A TEAM IN MARCH?
Sometimes, one red-hot player can take a team a long way in tournament play. The Minutes lists a few explosive, dominant types to keep an eye on:
Buddy Hield (11), Oklahoma. If you saw the Buddy Show Monday night, you know: he cannot be stopped. Hield’s 3-pointer with 1.3 seconds left beat a valiant and improving Texas team in Norman, the exclamation point on a 27-point night – 21 of those coming in the second half. He is the current king of clutch, the sultan of streak shooting, the most relentless worker on the offensive end – and the nation’s leading scorer on top of it all. If Kruger can keep him fresh enough for tournament time, he could take Oklahoma to Houston. At least.
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