The Baltimore Orioles must be a fan of the phrase "if it ain't broke, don't fix it." The team certainly felt that way about their bullpen, reportedly bringing back reliever Darren O'Day on a four-year, $31 million deal, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
O'Day, however, decided to throw some cold water on that report. He sent out a tweet that read: "Contrary to the news, I have not reached an agreement with the O's yet. I am flattered by all the attention, but reports are premature."
If the move does go through, it ensures the Orioles will bring back the majority of their dominant bullpen next season. Baltimore's relievers posted a league-best 6.4 WAR last season and ranked fifth with a 3.21 ERA. O'Day was a major factor in that performance, posting a 1.52 ERA, with 82 strikeouts, over 65 1/3 innings.
O'Day was the club's second most valuable reliever behind closer Zach Britton. Those two will once again combine to shut opponents down in the late innings for Baltimore. Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Brian Matusz are all under contract to return as well, giving the Orioles a devastating core of relievers.
O'Day was considered the best reliever available, so it's assumed his contract will set the market. That seemed to be the case initially as the Oakland Athletics reportedly agreed to a three-year, $22 million deal with Ryan Madson shortly after the O'Day news was official. O'Day ranked 27th on Jeff Passan's free-agent list this offseason, making him the best option on the market.
Four years is a long time for a team to invest in a reliever, especially one who is already 33. On top of that, the track record of non-closers getting big deals on the market isn't all that encouraging.
The issue isn't that O'Day can't close, he just hasn't had the opportunity. Since 2012, O'Day has ranked 15th among all relievers with a 4.9 WAR. He ranks eighth over the same period with a 1.92 ERA. Any thought that he wouldn't be able to get the job done in the ninth inning seems foolish based on his talent.
The main issue is that it's always risky to hand out long-term deals to relief pitchers. Most of the players listed above were effective after they signed, but broke down either due to age or injury. It's tough for any pitcher to be consistently excellent over a long period of time, but that issue becomes magnified when it's a reliever who is getting paid starting pitcher money.
That's not exactly the case here. O'Day will earn less than $10 million annually over the course of his deal. That's a fair amount of money for a reliever, though it doesn't top David Robertson's four-year, $46 million deal with the Chicago White Sox or Andrew Miller's four-year, $36 million deal with the New York Yankees.
Still, there's still a fair amount of risk involved here. There's nothing in O'Day's track record to suggest he's suddenly going to turn into a pumpkin, but the track record for relievers and the fact that he's already 33 are less than encouraging.
For now, though, O'Day is one of the best relievers in the game. If he can continue to fight off injuries and the effects of Father Time, he should continue to be effective. History tells us those issues will eventually come, but Baltimore will get elite production in the meantime.
No comments:
Post a Comment