Cotton Bowl: Five keys, predictions for Alabama-Michigan State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Michigan State (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)
Arlington, Texas
Dec. 31, 2015

It's the Nick Saban starter kit vs. his deluxe edition.

OK, the matchup between Michigan State and Alabama on Thursday in the Cotton Bowl is much more than that. But you're likely to hear a few times that Saban was Michigan State's head coach before he moved to LSU (and Alabama two stops later) in 1999.

And even though Michigan State's players were in preschool or younger when Saban's move to the SEC happened, it's not a stretch to think that Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has used the move as a motivational ploy for his players. No team in college football may be better than playing the disrespect card than Michigan State.

Are the Spartans really being disrespected? Yeah, the betting line on the game favors Alabama by nearly 10 points. But the Tide are one of the most popular teams in college football. That's a fact, not disrespect, though it sure can be taken as such.

But Michigan State is the champion of the Big Ten, the conference that won the College Football Playoff a year ago. Oh, and the Spartans beat that team, Ohio State, earlier in the season. Yes, Alabama is good, but there's no reason to immediately dismiss Michigan State's chances of making the Big Ten 2-for-2 in the CFP.

 

Here are five things to watch Thursday evening:

 

1. Alabama's rush defense: The Tide have given up 100+ yards on the ground just twice in 2015. Georgia ran for 193 against Alabama while Tennessee ran for 132. Michigan State has run for over 100 yards in all but two of its games in 2015. The Spartans ran for 77 yards against Air Force and 58 yards against Michigan.

Which team is going to add a third game to its story? The winner of the game likely won't. If Michigan State can successfully use its trio of LJ Scott, Madre London and Gerald Holmes to slice the Alabama rush defense, it opens up the pass game for ...

 

2. Connor Cook: It's not too often that you see a team with the best quarterback on the field be an underdog by more than a touchdown. Part of that, surely, is lingering questions about Cook's health. He suffered a right shoulder injury against Maryland and missed the team's win over Ohio State.

But Cook says he's feeling great. If he is, he should be able to complete passes down the field and open up the Alabama defense. Teams have had success going over the top of the Alabama defense, but for Michigan State to capitalize, the rushing offense has to force Alabama's linebackers and safeties to think more about the run. If the Alabama defensive line plugs the rush lanes by itself, Cook won't find much space for his receivers.

 

3. Quantity over quality for Derrick Henry?

As you likely know, Henry has had 90 carries over the past two games. It's no coincidence that Alabama's success has corresponded with his increased workload.

It's going to be nearly impossible for Michigan State to render Henry completely ineffective. Perhaps its why the number of Henry's carries may be more significant than the number of yards he gains on Thursday night.

During the 2015 Sugar Bowl, Ohio State held Henry to 13 carries. T.J. Yeldon got 10. The Tide lost that game by seven after once leading 21-6. Can Michigan State limit Henry to that total number of carries? Only once, vs. Mississippi State in November, did he have less than 23 carries against an SEC opponent in 2015.

 

4. Jacob Coker: If Michigan State can successfully limit the times Henry touches the football, the Alabama offensive pressure shifts to Coker. The QB has thrived as defenses focus on the battering ram that is Henry.

Coker has not thrown an interception in the past three games and has completed 65 percent or more of his passes in those three games. If Henry is (relatively) bottled up, the chances of Coker sustaining that success dwindle. The passing windows will be much smaller.

 

5. Kickers: After a rocky start to the season, Adam Griffith has been very reliable for the Tide. He's 21-29 on field goal attempts for the season and is 15-17 over his last eight games.

Michigan State's Michael Geiger, most known for his game-winning kick vs. Ohio State, hasn't been as reliable. Geiger is 12-19 on field goals in 2015 and is 8-12 over the same span. Yeah, Griffith may never be able to shake the kick-six against Auburn and his early-season struggles will always linger in the back of Alabama fans' minds. But if the game comes down to a late field goal attempt, he's the better bet.

 

PICKS

 

Graham: I have to think Alabama learned a lot from Tom Herman in the offseason and that’s going to help the Tide against Michigan State. This is going to be a tough game, but it’s hard to bet against Derrick Henry these days. Alabama 17, Michigan State 13.

 

Nick: Graham and Sam are all about the low-scoring game. I think the winner of this one breaks 20. And yes, I think Alabama wins this game. The Spartans keep it close, and Adam Griffith wins it late. Alabama 23, Michigan State 20.

 

Sam: There’s just something about this Michigan State team. It’s not spectacular in any facets, but it won’t beat itself. For Alabama, I just don’t trust Jake Coker whatsoever if he needs to make a throw late in a game. Michigan State 17, Alabama 14.