Final bowl projections, now that the College Football Playoff is official

Clemson will host a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl. Alabama will host a Playoff semifinal at the Cotton Bowl. Michigan State and Oklahoma will be the road teams.

Now we wait until 12:30 p.m. ET or so to find out the seeding, which determines exactly which teams are facing each other in the Playoff on New Year's Eve.

If Clemson remains No. 1 after squeaking past No. 10 North Carolina with the aid of a botched call by ACC refs, despite Alabama dominating No. 18 Florida for the majority of the SEC Championship and winning comfortably (Bama was outgaining Florida by 319 yards at one point, so, yeah), that still wouldn't tell us exactly which teams the Tigers and Tide would face next. That could happen, by the way, since the committee's said it's considered moving Bama to No. 1 for weeks and the Tide have more wins over winning teams than anybody else does.

Oklahoma entered the weekend at No. 3, then relaxed as No. 5 Michigan State beat No. 4 Iowa in all-time Big Ten fashion. That win, plus the general strength of MSU's schedule, could certainly inspire the committee to move the Spartans up to No. 3. However, the Spartans' lack of truly dominant performances could be a factor.

Think this is the best guess right now:

College Football Playoff (bold = done deal)
National Championship	Alabama	Clemson	January 11	Glendale, AZ	Cotton winner vs. Orange winner
Cotton	No. 2 Alabama	No. 3 Michigan State	December 31	Arlington, TX	Playoff rankings top 4
Orange	No. 1 Clemson	No. 4 Oklahoma	December 31	Miami	Playoff rankings top 4

There's not much more drama in the next group, but bear with me. The Sugar Bowl is already set, Stanford's already in the Rose Bowl, and almost everyone else is close to being in place.

The main quarrel the committee will have to figure out is whether to drop previous No. 4 Iowa below No. 6 Ohio State for losing a close one to No. 5 Michigan State, a thing OSU also did. That will decide the Big Ten's Rose bid, as the bowl's indicating it'll take the highest-ranked non-Playoff team, no matter what.

I think the Buckeyes rank higher. OSU has six wins over .500-plus FBS teams; Iowa has four. OSU has the better scoring margin despite the tougher-ish schedule. The committee can't cite advanced stats in its discussions, but any computer rating you want to look up will tell you the Buckeyes were better this season.

That means Florida State, Houston, Iowa, and Notre Dame get sorted based largely on geography and partly on matchups. FSU's basically a lock for the Peach due to location, and let's say the committee splits up the two biggest brand names, FSU and ND, which played last year anyway.

New Year's Six bowls (bold = done deal)
Fiesta	Notre Dame	Houston	January 1	Glendale, AZ	At-large
Rose	Ohio State	Stanford	January 1	Pasadena, CA	Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1
Sugar	Oklahoma State	Ole Miss	January 1	New Orleans	Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1
Peach	Florida State	Iowa	December 31	Atlanta	At-large

And now for the real fun, which the Playoff committee has nothing directly to do with. For most of these matchups, it's all about individual bowls jostling to make enough money to justify doing this again for a few more years.

There's a lot more guessing in this group, but things shouldn't be too far off.

Bowl (bold = done deal, * = filling another conference's bid)					Conferences ties and selection order, not based on standings
Alamo	TCU	Oregon	January 2	San Antonio	Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Cactus	West Virginia	Arizona State	January 2	Tempe, AZ	Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7
Liberty	Kansas State	Arkansas	January 2	Memphis	Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
TaxSlayer	Penn State	Georgia	January 2	Jacksonville, FL	ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Citrus	Michigan	Florida	January 1	Orlando	Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2
Outback	Northwestern	Tennessee	January 1	Tampa	Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Belk	Virginia Tech	Mississippi State	December 30	Charlotte	ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Birmingham	Memphis	Auburn	December 30	Birmingham, AL	American vs. SEC 9
Holiday	Wisconsin	USC	December 30	San Diego	Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Music City	Louisville	Texas A&M	December 30	Nashville	ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Arizona	Marshall	Nevada	December 29	Tucson	C-USA vs. MWC
Armed Forces	Cal*	Air Force	December 29	Fort Worth, TX	Big Ten vs. MWC
Russell Athletic	North Carolina	Baylor	December 29	Orlando	ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Texas	Texas Tech	LSU	December 29	Houston	Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Military	NC State	Navy	December 28	Annapolis, MD	ACC vs. American
Quick Lane	Pitt	Minnesota	December 28	Detroit	ACC vs. Big Ten
Foster Farms	Nebraska	UCLA	December 26	Santa Clara, CA	Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Heart of Dallas	Washington*	Southern Miss	December 26	Dallas	Big 12 7 vs. C-USA
Independence	Akron*	Utah State*	December 26	Shreveport, LA	ACC vs. SEC (C-USA backup)
Pinstripe	Duke	Indiana	December 26	New York City	ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
St. Petersburg	UConn	San Jose State*	December 26	St. Petersburg, FL	American vs. C-USA
Sun	Miami	Utah	December 26	El Paso	ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Bahamas	Middle Tennessee	Western Michigan	December 24	Nassau, BS	C-USA vs. MAC
Hawaii	Cincinnati	Colorado State	December 24	Honolulu	American vs. MWC/BYU
GoDaddy	Bowling Green	Georgia Southern	December 23	Mobile, AL	MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Poinsettia	San Diego State	Arizona*	December 23	San Diego	MWC vs. Army
Boca Raton	Temple	Toledo	December 22	Boca Raton, FL	American vs. MAC
Potato	Ohio	Boise State	December 22	Boise, ID	MAC 2 vs. MWC
Miami Beach	USF	Western Kentucky	December 21	Miami	American vs. C-USA
Camelia	Northern Illinois	Appalachian State	December 19	Montgomery, AL	MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3
Cure	Tulsa	Georgia State	December 19	Orlando	American vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas	BYU	Washington State	December 19	Las Vegas	MWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6
New Mexico	Central Michigan*	New Mexico	December 19	Albuquerque	C-USA vs. MWC
New Orleans	Arkansas State	Louisiana Tech	December 19	New Orleans	Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA