College coaching carousel edition

HOW LONG IS TOO LONG?

 

LSU’s three-game losing streak has brought down a surprising amount of heat upon the second-winningest coach in school history. As Yahoo Sports reported Monday, the school is “prepared” to pass the hat and buy out The Hat in Baton Rouge.

Which just goes to show the cannibalistic nature of the Southeastern Conference, the pressure to win big, and the high price of not beating your biggest rival for a while. It’s also illustrative of the two-edged sword of continuity – coaches crave it, but longevity can work against them sometimes. With that in mind, The Dash looks at coaches who have won big but lost some mojo, and are in danger of overstaying their welcome:

Les Miles (1), LSU. His record is 110-32 in 11 seasons in Baton Rouge. Repeat: 110-32. The Tigers are thinking seriously about paying a gazillion dollars in buyout money to get rid of a coach who has averaged 10 wins per year for more than a decade, plus whatever the cost would be to bring in a new rock star (Jimbo Fisher, Line One). This in a state where higher education funding has been under siege, and where massive cuts were fended off last spring. It’s shameful. But the lesson for Les is this: beat Nick Saban or find your job on the line. Miles has lost five straight to the former LSU coach, starting with the 2012 BCS championship game shutout, and that has become intolerable for LSU diehards. Miles also has failed to put a modernized offense on the field, perpetually squandering elite wide receiver talent. But still: 110-32. And may get fired.

Mark Richt (2), Georgia. The Dash doesn’t expect Richt’s 15th season as coach of the Bulldogs to be his last – but losing for the second straight year to rival Georgia Tech could definitely change that. Especially this Georgia Tech team, which is 3-8 and the biggest bust of 2015. Like Miles, Richt’s overall record is excellent: 144-51, an average of 9.6 wins per year. But sitting on a gold mine of local talent hasn’t translated into a ton of SEC championships – just two of those, and none since 2005. And in a stretch where the SEC won seven straight national titles and had nine teams play in eight straight BCS championship games, none of them was Georgia. Staff acrimony and awful quarterback play have been the issues with this team, which was crushed by Alabama and Florida and blew a big lead against Tennessee. But still: 144-51. And may get fired.

If there is an ally out there for Richt and Miles as the storms rage, it may be the Phil Fulmer (3) cautionary tale at Tennessee. He was the most recent case of an SEC coach with a great résumé – 152-52 in 17 seasons, with the 1998 national title trophy – to be pushed out in 2008 amid declining returns. Since then Tennessee has gone 42-44 and is on its third coach.

 

Or, at LSU, there is the Charley McClendon (4) cautionary tale. He coached the Tigers from 1962-79 and remains the school’s winningest coach with 137 victories. His career tailed off in his final six seasons, going 40-27-2 over that span, and he was forced out. What followed was basically a two-decade stay in Mediocreville, with 10 losing seasons between 1981-99. That’s why Saban’s arrival in 2000 was a godsend, and why the fan base still is fixated by him today. He transformed LSU, left LSU and now specializes in beating LSU. And the fans can’t stand it.

The general feeling outside of the states of Louisiana and Georgia is that they’d better be careful what they wish for. In a league like the SEC, it’s not difficult to go from 9-3 and unhappy to 5-7 and utterly miserable. But the amount of in-state talent for both LSU and Georgia to have first run at is enough to believe things could be better. That’s why Les Miles and Mark Richt are on the clock.

Two guys who have effectively killed the same out-with-the-old talk this season:

 

Kirk Ferentz (5), Iowa. He began his 17th season in Iowa City with an approval rating that was probably at its lowest point since starting his tenure with consecutive seasons of 1-10 and 3-9. He’s ending his 17th season in what could be a Coach For Life comfort zone. The Hawkeyes are 11-0 for the first time in school history, have clinched the Big Ten West and remain in the CFP hunt (we’ll find out exactly where they stand Tuesday night when the new rankings are released). A schedule that features six conference opponents with losing records certainly has helped, but this team has clearly exceeded expectations and upgraded a program that had gone just 26-25 the previous four seasons. Ferentz almost certainly will be the Big Ten Coach of the Year.

 

Bob Stoops (6), Oklahoma. It might be best to say that Stoops has silenced the Change Is Needed talk instead of killing it. Because if the Sooners lose in Stillwater on Saturday with a Big 12 title and potential College Football Playoff berth on the line, that chatter will make a comeback. A 10-2 season is a fine thing, but when the losses are to your two biggest rivals as a solid favorite in both games? That leaves a coach open to criticism. Still, Stoops’ staff shakeup in the offseason has paid immediate and substantial dividends, making last year’s 8-5 record more of a radar blip than an indicator of a program in decline. Athletic director Joe Castiglione has been resolutely supportive of Stoops, and with good reason. He’s too good to let go.

 

A SPIN AROUND THE COACHING CAROUSEL

A busy hire-and-fire year is reaching crunch time, as seasons end and job searches intensify. Establishing a Herman Watch (7) to stalk the movements and parse the words of Houston coach Tom Herman might be a good idea. And maybe a Chip Watch (8), although there are no reliable reports that Chip Kelly is itching to get back to college football. But for now, a broad-strokes look at the job market will have to do:

Virginia Tech (9) – Leaving: Frank Beamer. Arriving: The Dash is betting the mortgage on Memphis coach Justin Fuente, and betting that it happens quickly next week. Word is that athletic director Whit Babcock has his man, and has for a while now, and Fuente is that man. He’s done a remarkable job at previously moribund Memphis, going 18-6 over the past two seasons. It’s possible that tumbling dominoes at LSU and points elsewhere (namely Florida State) unspring this, but unlikely. A Fuente hiring would also keep Rich Rodriguez in place at Arizona.

 

South Carolina (10). Left: Steve Spurrier. Arriving: Could this finally be the job that makes Kirby Smart leave Nick Saban’s side at Alabama? It’s believed that South Carolina was pretty far down the road with Tom Herman, but that’s changed. Mark Dantonio is an alum, but that doesn’t feel like the right job for him. He already has the right job for him.

 

Syracuse (11). Left: Scott Shafer. Arriving: Is this the re-entry point for Greg Schiano? Has had success in the northeast, and his name hasn’t generated as much interest at some other locales as might have been expected. (There was some chatter about Schiano and Miami, but it may not be front-burner chatter.) Remains to be seen if athletic director Mark Coyle would reciprocate any Schiano interest, but he seemingly would be a very good hire at a school that has been down on its football luck for most of the last decade.

 

Miami (12). Left: Al Golden. Arriving: Unknown. The Charlie Strong rumors wouldn’t die, but the Texas coach gave a definitive statement Monday that he’s “not going anywhere” and told his players as much. If Strong is out, Alabama assistant coach, former Hurricane player and former Florida International head coach Mario Cristobal has a ton of backing and could well be the guy. There also is booster sentiment for former Miami coach Butch Davis, which is swell if you want to overlook the huge academic/agent scandal on Davis’ watch in the North Carolina program plus Miami’s recent death march through the NCAA judicial process. (Seriously, does this stuff even matter to some people?) Schiano, Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen or an outside-the-box candidate could appear if the Cristobal train doesn’t make it to the station.

 

USC (13). Left: Steve Sarkisian. Staying: Clay Helton? The interim coach has done a nice job, and there may be some sentiment for hiring him full-time – but that would be impossible if he finishes the regular season with losses to Oregon and UCLA. Add in a loss to Notre Dame and you pretty much have the trinity of teams USC fans hate losing to most. Where this search is going beyond the iffy Helton candidacy is one of the great mysteries of 2015. Herman would seem like a good choice here, but nobody is connecting those dots with any degree of certainty at this point. Kyle Whittingham’s name came up quickly after Sarkisian was fired, in part due to Utah’s hot start and in part due to his clashes with school administration. He’s a very good coach, but can USC hire a guy who is 19-25 in Pac-12 games? Even Sark was better than that (24-21) at Washington. Spitball the idea of Mullen here, though it would not seem to be a natural fit.

Missouri (14). Left: Gary Pinkel. Arriving: Unknown. Athletic director Mack Rhoades skillfully navigated through an arduous situation with the campus unrest and short-lived but very public player boycott – then he lost the best coach in school history to health issues. Expect Mizzou to approach a short list of candidates this week – but the logical and popular choice of Herman may not be on it. Rhoades hired him at Houston, but getting him to follow his old boss to Columbia may be difficult. Herman could be eyeballing other jobs, or might seriously consider staying for a second year at Houston now that the school has upped his salary to $3 million and could have a killer team coming back in 2016. One potential advantage to that strategy: if Texas opens and Herman has another great season, it’s a short drive from Houston to Austin. Fuente would have been a logical name, but he’s expected to be off the market. So who else would be a candidate? Former Mizzou player and current defensive coordinator Barry Odom, who would maintain continuity – but would have to find someone to rejuvenate a dreadful offense. If the school would like to retrace Pinkel’s MAC-to-Mizzou footsteps, there are good coaches at Toledo (Matt Campbell), Bowling Green (Dino Babers) and Western Michigan (P.J. Fleck). Jeff Brohm of Western Kentucky could be an attractive name. Don’t expect Miles to be on the Mizzou short list if he gets forced out at LSU. A complicating factor at Missouri: there is no full-time chancellor after the Concerned Student 1950 protest led to a leadership purge.

 

Virginia (15). Leaving: Mike London. Arriving: ????. The school has said nothing publicly, but it has been widely taken as fact that London will be dismissed after the Cavaliers’ game against Virginia Tech on Saturday. This could be a job that appeals to Brohm, whose high-octane offense seemingly would play well for a fan base anesthetized by six years of LondonBall. Whether Brohm (17-7 in two seasons at WKU) would appeal to Virginia remains to be seen.

 

Tulane (16). Potentially leaving: Curtis Johnson. Arriving: ????. The move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference hasn’t been a good one for the Green Wave or for Johnson’s job security, apparently. There has been considerable speculation that Johnson will be out sometime after Tulane (3-8) plays Tulsa on Friday. He was 9-16 in two seasons in C-USA, including a 7-6 year, but is just 6-17 since Tulane joined the American. Tulane recently built a cozy, on-campus stadium and undoubtedly would like to capitalize on that investment with an upgraded on-field product. Problem is, the school has to name an athletic director first. A search committee and search firm is believed to be closing in on a hire in that department.

 

Rutgers (17). Potentially leaving: Kyle Flood. Arriving: The Piscataway Fire Department, to put out the dumpster fire that is Scarlet Knights football. There are no reports that Flood will be fired, but neither has anyone in the school administration publicly stated support for the embattled coach. His popularity with fans has reached this level: a public service announcement featuring Flood that appeared on the stadium big screen Saturday during Rutgers’ home loss to Nebraska prompted a chorus of boos from the fans. After a season that has been miserable for many reasons beyond the 4-7 record, it’s very hard to envision a scenario in which Flood returns. Maybe Schiano comes to the wood-chopping rescue of his former school and replaces his former assistant, but it might be better for Rutgers to have a fresh start.

 

WHEN A POWER 5 JOB HAS NO POWER

 

A source told The Dash that it would not be a shock to see “a Power 5 coach taking a better mid-major” job this offseason. Which raised the question: which football programs are operating far enough beneath their membership privilege to make a group-of-five job an actual step up? The list:

Kansas (18). Jayhawks are one loss away from the first winless season by a Power 5 team since 2008. Average home attendance this season in 50,071-seat Memorial Stadium: 27,020. The program has been atrocious for a while now (seven-year record: 12-59) and it will take a long time to dig out of the toxic dump that was the Charlie Weis Era. David Beaty is in his first year as a head coach and first at Kansas – but would you blame him for leaving?

Colorado (19). This is the Buffaloes’ 10th straight losing season, spanning three different coaches. If they can win at Utah on Saturday (unlikely), they will reach five wins for the first time since 2010. Attendance isn’t quite Kansas-level bad, but Colorado still is playing in front of an average of 11,000 empty seats in 50,475-seat Folsom Field every home game. Mike McIntyre had success at San Jose State before coming to Boulder; wouldn’t be inconceivable of him to want to go back to that level.

 

Indiana (20). The Hoosiers have to beat Purdue on Saturday to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2007 and just the second time since 1993. Beating Purdue is not hard, but beating Purdue for the third straight season is – last time Indiana did it was 1945-47. It would also be a second straight Big Ten road win, something the Hoosiers last performed in ’93. Fans lobbied for ESPN “GameDay” to come to Bloomington when Indiana was 4-0; Hoosiers then lost their last four home games of the year. Kevin Wilson probably won’t get fired, but he will have completed five years on the job without a bowl bid if Indiana loses to the Boilermakers.

Honorable mention to California, which has a coach who is annually rumored ready to leave for a non-Power 5 job in Sonny Dykes. The third-year coach has the Golden Bears (6-5) bowl-bound for the first time since 2011, and contract extension talks are ongoing. But would a Texan have an eye on Houston if Tom Herman leaves?

Mid-major jobs that could be considered better than the worst Power 5 jobs: Houston, Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Boise State, San Diego State, Memphis if it’s sustainable after Fuente.

 

THE SPOILERS

 

There are nine teams with a fighting chance at a playoff spot right now: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Baylor, Notre Dame, Iowa, Michigan State, Florida and North Carolina. (Ohio State and Oklahoma State also have a shot, but it's unlikely.) All nine true contenders face a season-ruining risk this weekend. The Dash appraises the teams that have the opportunity to upset everything:

 

Auburn (21). The opponent: Alabama. The location: Auburn. The line: Alabama by 13. Last time they played at Jordan-Hare Stadium, the Tigers triumphed as a 10-point underdog – you might remember how that particular game ended. This time around the 6-5 Tigers might require something even more improbable to win. But Auburn got a little motivation from Alabama center Ryan Kelly on Monday, when he was asked about Tigers defensive end Carl Lawson: "I honestly don't know who that is," Kelly said, and did not appear to be joking. Lawson has missed most of the last two seasons with injuries, but he was a freshman All-American in 2013, played in the Iron Bowl that season, and one presumes he will try to introduce himself to Kelly at some point Saturday. Dash pick: Alabama 20, Auburn 10.

 

Oklahoma State (22). The opponent: Oklahoma. The location: Stillwater. The line: Oklahoma by 6 ½. Oklahoma State still could harbor playoff chances of its own if it wins this game, and Baylor and Notre Dame both lose. But the 10-1 Cowboys are playing from the outside after they were brought back to Earth by Baylor last week, losing 45-35 in a game that was not as close as the score. (The Bears were minus-three turnovers or it would have really gotten ugly.) If Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield cannot play, give the Pokes a decent chance. But early signs are that Mayfield will be cleared after sitting out part of Oklahoma’s one-point win over TCU Saturday. Dash pick: Oklahoma 35, Oklahoma State 28.

 

Florida State (23). The opponent: Florida. The location: Gainesville. The line: Seminoles by 2. Unless Fisher spends all week talking to agent Jimmy Sexton about getting him to Baton Rouge, this is a good situation for Florida State. The offensively challenged Gators are staggering down the stretch of an overachieving season, with shaky wins over Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt this month. And the 'Noles have played well since their playoff hopes were extinguished by Clemson on Nov. 7. Dash pick: Florida State 17, Florida 16.

Penn State (24). The opponent: Michigan State. The location: East Lansing. The line: No line, due to Michigan State injury uncertainty at quarterback. The Nittany Lions’ only road win of the season was by a point over a 2-9 Maryland team that outgained Penn State by 103 yards on the day. In other words, not much reason to believe James Franklin’s team is walking into Spartan Stadium and robbing Michigan State of a playoff bid. Still, it’s entirely reasonable to expect a Sparty hangover from the triumph in Columbus, and if Connor Cook cannot play it will again turn Michigan State one-dimensional. So could it be close? Sure, it could be close. Dash pick: Michigan State 21, Penn State 14.

Nebraska (25). The opponent: Iowa. The location: Lincoln. The line: Iowa by 2. The miniscule point spread against a 5-6 opponent shows that The Dash isn’t the only one underwhelmed by the Hawkeyes. During their bye week, the Cornhuskers were dealing with a rape allegation and investigation involving three players, including starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong. The investigation is ongoing and no charges have been filed, and first-year Nebraska coach Mike Riley said there will be no player suspensions for this game. It’s been a largely lousy season for the 5-6 Huskers, but they are the only team to have beaten Michigan State and would love to say the same about Iowa by Friday night. Dash pick: Nebraska 26, Iowa 24.

 

Stanford (26). The opponent: Notre Dame. The location: Palo Alto. The line: Stanford by 3 ½. The Cardinal were eliminated from playoff contention Nov. 14 by Oregon, in part because they fumbled two center-quarterback exchanges. That’s a bad way to have your season marred. But Stanford gets its own shot at ruining someone’s season, and gets a crippled Notre Dame team in its backyard. The Fighting Irish have impressively overcome injuries all season, but last week star cornerback KeiVarae Russell broke a leg and star running back C.J. Prosise sprained an ankle, and that may finally be the tipping point on the season. Dash pick: Stanford 31, Notre Dame 28.

 

TCU (27). The opponent: Baylor. The location: Fort Worth. The line: Baylor by 1 ½. Injured Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin may be back for this one, after missing the loss at Oklahoma and much of the close escape over Kansas. If so, TCU has a chance to exact revenge after three-point losses to the Bears each of the past two seasons. But Baylor looked like it figured some things out about Life Without Seth Russell against Oklahoma State, pounding a solid defense for 304 rushing yards and 700 yards total. Dash pick: Baylor 47, TCU 41.

 

North Carolina State (28). The opponent: North Carolina. The location: Raleigh. The line: North Carolina by 6 ½. The Wolfpack has beaten all the bad teams on the schedule: Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, South Alabama, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse. It has lost to all the decent-to-good teams on the schedule: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State. North Carolina is a good team, with a much tougher defense than the one the Wolfpack mauled in a rout last season. Dash pick: North Carolina 31, North Carolina State 20.

South Carolina. The opponent: Clemson. The location: Columbia. The line: Clemson by 17 ½. The Dash suspects the Head Ball Coach saw this trainwreck coming in early October and wanted no part of a season-ending beatdown at the hands of the arch-rival, so it was time to resign/retire. After losing to The Citadel last week, the Gamecocks may be too demoralized to put up any resistance against a team hell-bent on playing for a national title. Dash pick: Clemson 41, South Carolina 14.

 

OTHER RIVALRY GAMES OF IMPORT

 

It’s that wonderful weekend when the hate reaches a boiling point at locales around the country. The big rivalry games that impact the playoff race are mentioned above. Some others worth watching here:

 

Ohio State-Michigan (29). The Spartans dealt a one-two punch so destructive to their two biggest rivals that this is the result: a matchup everyone has been talking about since January is now relegated to second-tier status. Beating the Wolverines on the last play was one thing; beating the Buckeyes on the last play means Meyer-Harbaugh I is only vital to the Big Ten East race if Michigan State were to lose to Penn State. Nevertheless, it’s Meyer-Harbaugh I. And Michigan is better than expected. And Ohio State is worse than expected. And Ezekiel Elliott will start and undoubtedly get the ball 25 times after nuking the coaching staff Saturday night for not giving him enough carries. So, yeah, there are reasons to watch. Dash pick: Michigan 20, Ohio State 16.

UCLA-USC (30). Even though both teams have the unmistakable aroma of disappointment about them, the crosstown rivalry will decide the Pac-12 South title. And it is one of the great uniform matchups of the year, every year. Hard to believe, but it’s been seven seasons since USC last won the conference title. UCLA last won it in 1998. If Josh Rosen continues his long streak of passes without an interception and the Bruins don’t fumble, they should win. Dash pick: UCLA 28, USC 22.

 

Mississippi-Mississippi Sate (31). The Egg Bowl has been significant, compelling and unpredictable in recent years. The underdog has won at home each of the past two meetings, and State fits that profile this time around in Dak Prescott’s final game at Davis Wade Stadium. “I came back for this reason,” Prescott said Monday, referencing the Bulldogs’ upset loss in Oxford in 2014. His late-blooming Heisman Trophy candidacy could get a boost here as well. Dash pick: Mississippi State 29, Mississippi 27.

 

Virginia Tech-Virginia (32). The Hokies are playing for a bowl bid, and to send Frank Beamer out of this rivalry on a winning note. The Cavaliers are playing to send London out with a win. And befitting a rivalry, there is some ethical contortion going on to make sure the best players are on the field. Tech is only suspending defensive end Dadi Nicolas for a half after deciding that this was unintentional contact with an official. Urban Meyer himself would think that’s soft. The ACC should have stepped in and suspended Nicolas for the full game as a statement that it is protecting its referees. Dash pick: Virginia Tech 22, Virginia 19.

 

Washington State-Washington (33). The Apple Cup pits a Cougars team trying to finish its best season since 2003 against a Huskies team trying to get bowl eligible for the sixth straight season. Mike Leach is the Pac-12 Coach of the Year, while Chris Petersen has a young team that could be dangerous in 2016. It could come down to the status of Cougars QB Luke Falk, who is iffy after suffering an apparent head injury in his team's win over Colorado last Saturday. Dash pick: Washington 32, Washington State 31.

 

Big Ten trophy games (34) Indiana, Minnesota and Illinois all are 5-6 and all playing in rivalry games for bowl eligibility. The Hoosiers take on Purdue for the Old Oaken Bucket. The Gophers are playing Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan’s Ax. And the Illini face Northwestern for the Land of Lincoln Trophy – the more acceptable replacement for the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk that was first awarded in 1945. Those are some stakes. Dash picks: Purdue 41, Indiana 40; Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 14; Northwestern 25, Illinois 21.

 

ALSO IMPORTANT

 

Two big games outside the power five conferences:

Navy-Houston (35). Battle for the AAC West and a possible swanky bowl bid between one-loss teams having great seasons. Keenan Reynolds’ dark-horse Heisman charge also a storyline. And Herman Watch, of course. Dash pick: Navy 35, Houston 31. A result Notre Dame would certainly cheer.

 

Western Kentucky-Marshall (36). Last year the Hilltoppers won 67-66 on a gutsy two-point conversion call by Brohm. This year, with the C-USA West title in the balance and both teams 9-2, expect plenty more points. Dash pick: WKU 59, Marshall 56.

Dashette Adriana Fonseca (37) matters greatly as well.

 

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

 

Mark Dantonio (38), Michigan State. May have done the best one-week coaching job of anyone in America in 2015 to get the Spartans ready to beat Ohio State without star quarterback Connor Cook. Michigan State revels in the no-respect role, even if it has to manufacture it sometimes. This time there was no manufacturing needed, and the Spartans stunned the world. Between Dantonio and Tom Izzo, nobody has a better one-two coaching tandem than athletic director Mark Hollis.

 

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Urban Meyer (39), Ohio State. If Dantonio coached the Game of the Year on Saturday, Meyer may have done the equal and opposite job. Whether it was a badly flawed gameplan or an in-game play-calling choke or simply a failure to ever get the Buckeyes firing like they did at the end of last season, the loss in the Horseshoe fully exposed a team that has seriously underachieved. And when key players were publicly turning pro within minutes after the loss, you wonder whether the buy-in to team over individual was ever there this season.

 

POINT AFTER

 

When hungry in Knoxville, The Dash recommends a visit to the reliably awesome Calhoun’s On The River (40). The place is mobbed on gameday, so plan accordingly. Try the brisket, try the ribs, try any meat you like. And try an Appalachian Pale Ale from Smoky Mountain Brewery with all that meat. Thank The Dash later.