Homer Bailey is out for the season and the Reds have some thinking to do

In not-so-shocking news Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey needs Tommy John surgery, the club announced Friday. He'd been sidelined most of the season with elbow problems, so we knew this was a possibility.

Bailey will be out until midway through the 2016 season, since Tommy John rehab takes about 12 months.

Yahoo Sports' own Jeff Passan notes that Bailey is only the second $100 million pitcher to have Tommy John surgery, a fact also helped by many stud pitchers getting Tommy John surgery before their big contracts. The Reds and Bailey agreed to a $105 million contract extension in February 2014.

While losing a starting pitcher to Tommy John surgery is never easy, the Reds losing Bailey in this case is even tougher, because it has effects beyond Bailey and his rotation spot. The Reds have young arms who can help out, so making the lineup each day isn't a worry. Rather, in the bigger scope, the Reds need to figure out where they go from here.

Many words were written before the season about whether the Reds actually had a chance to contend in the tough NL Central or whether they should just blow up their roster and try for a quick rebuild. Some of their offseason moves suggesting rebuilding, but the team said it was still trying to win. So far, there are no definitive answers. The Reds are 11-11, pretty average, unless you're counting their manager's use of the F-word.

They've got big money on the books, with Bailey's contract, Joey Votto being owed at least $20 million for eight seasons starting in 2016 and Brandon Phillips still due $27 million after this season. The last thing anybody in Cincinnati wants is to become the Philadelphia Phillies, with a bloated, aging roster that can't deliver on its potential.

And we haven't even mentioned yet that ace Johnny Cueto is a free agent come November and will demand big money on the open market.

So the Reds have to be asking themselves if 2015 is worth it? Do they have a shot? If not, they should start shopping Cueto immediately, getting what they can in a market in which the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers all could potentially need another big-name pitcher.

Cole Hamels is still out there to be had, but Cueto would make the trade market much more interesting.

The Reds have been close for a few years now, looking like they were one player or one bit of good fortune away from making a deep postseason run. It didn't happen then. It doesn't look it's happening in 2015.

The question for the Reds is whether they want to fall all the way down before they start to climb up again.