The 2013 draft is looking more and more like a giant bust

Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel watches from sideline in the second half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions, Sunday, Oct. 5, 2014, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Here's some real talk for you, post-draft: Not all the first-round picks made last week are going to be NFL stars.

We're reminded of this now every year around this time when NFL teams must make decisions on the first-round picks they made a mere three years ago. Optimism was high then, even for what looks like a putrid draft now, but in many cases it's back down to earth with news trickling in for which teams are picking up those players' fifth-year options.

In short: The 2013 draft was pretty awful. And right now, it's really sinking in as teams are now having to admit to a lot of their mistakes.

The 2011 CBA allowed NFL teams to sign first-rounders to four-year contracts with a fifth year at the team's discretion (to be decided before the start of the fourth season). That salary is based off an average of the top players at their positions, with top-10 picks making a higher average.

On Monday, the deadline to exercise fifth-year options for 2013 first-rounders, we found out that options were declined on several big-name players from that draft class, including Jacksonville Jaguars offensive tackle Luke Joeckel (No. 2 overall), Cleveland Browns pass rusher Barkevious Mingo (No. 6), Tennessee Titans guard Chance Warmack (No. 10), Buffalo Bills quarterback EJ Manuel (No. 16) and Minnesota Vikings receiver-returner Cordarrelle Patterson (No. 29).

Other options declined: Oakland Raiders CB D.J. Hayden and Devner Broncos nose tackle Sylvester Williams, although you get the idea that both could still end up staying with their respective teams at less money.

The Kansas City Chiefs picked up No. 1 pick Eric Fisher's option, which was in some doubt. The San Diego Chargers picked up the fifth year for OG D.J. Fluker, the 11th pick that year.

Typically, although not in all cases, a team declining a player's option means it's disappointed in their performance, and it's giving him a one-year, make-or-break deal to prove themselves. Likewise, most teams that do pick up the option are happy with the player, and it can be a case of getting an extra year cheap out of a star player and preventing him from hitting the open market.

Of course, there are always exceptions — Robert Griffin III being an excellent one. The Washington Redskins elected to pick up RG3's fifth year and then ended up not even playing him this past season, likely for fear of him getting hurt, which would fully guarantee his 2017 money. Instead, they released him this offseason, and Griffin is now a Brown.

Another fifth-year option that was exercised was that of the New York Jets' Quinton Coples, but the team released him less than seven months later. On the flip side, Doug Martin was declined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he turned it into a franchise tag and some new money from the team. Also declined: Melvin Ingram by the San Diego Chargers, who later signed him to an extension.

So it's not a hard-and-fast statement of hatred when the fifth-year option is declined, nor is it love when it's picked up, but it's clear that Mingo, Warmack and Patterson are heading into prove-it years. For Warmack, who has played well of late, it might be more of a case of a top-10 guard who would earn $12 million in 2017, so perhaps an extension can be worked out with him. But unless injuries change the landscape, Manuel doesn't appear to be getting much of a chance in Buffalo.

The 2013 draft, of course, wasn't a total wash. First-rounders Ziggy Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, Lane Johnson, Kyle Long and Star Lotulelei have become very good players, and there are a handful of other serviceable ones. After that, there were a handful of gems: Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy and Jamie Collins in Round 2, Keenan Allen in Round 3 and a few more.

But by and large, this is the worst of the draft classes in recent years. Let's hope that the 2016 crop, less than 48 hours in the books, has a far brighter future than this one.