Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Will the Kentucky Derby suffer an American Pharoah hangover?

For many years, Bob Baffert has been the most recognizable face in thoroughbred racing. The sunglasses, the silver hair, all the big races won – they have combined to make the trainer a fan magnet. Somebody is always coming up to say hello, especially in a bedrock racing town like this one.
Bob Baffert sports an American Pharaoh jacket as he talks to media Monday. (AP)Baffert's mobility has been reduced even further this spring.
In years past at Churchill Downs, he couldn't move more than 20 feet without being stopped. On the short walk from the track to his Barn 33 here Tuesday morning, he was approached roughly every five feet. When he slowed down for one group, here came another, fumbling for iPhones and producing memorabilia for him to sign.
"It's all about photographs and autographs in my life," Baffert said, half-joking.
Celebrity status was fully conferred after his dazzling colt, American Pharoah, won the Triple Crown last spring. That ended a 37-year drought between crowns, a deprivation that came to hold racing hostage as it churned through the same cycle of hope in Louisville and Baltimore followed by disappointment in New York.
When Pharoah broke through in the Belmont, on an unforgettable June evening in New York, it suddenly tore up the sport's script. Here was a prodigious plot twist. But as repetitive as the old storyline had become – between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah in 2015, 13 horses won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before failing to either win or run in the Belmont – the suspense of the chase produced a pretty strong hook for casual fans.
Could it ever be done again? There were legions of doubters, myself included.
Now we know the answer. It can be done.
And thus now we have a new spring, and a new storyline, and a new question: Is the Triple Crown's allure freshly enhanced by American Pharoah? Or is it diminished by a loss of mystique, the end of the quest, the proof that equine Everest can still be summited?
We're about to find out.
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Once widely popular in the American mainstream, horse racing had become something of an antiquity – long ago relegated to niche status and more recently marginalized by the rise of other forms of legalized gambling, and the increasingly brief careers of the best horses. Then along came American Pharoah – not to save the sport, but to remind everyone how grand and glorious it can be.
There is evidence that Pharoah's run gave racing a valuable and tangible bump back toward relevance. Start with what matters most: the sport's bottom line.
According to Equibase statistics, handle – the amount of dollars wagered in the United States on thoroughbred races – rose in 2015 over 2014 by 1.2 percent. While that might not sound like much, consider that counters a period of steady annual decline, from a high of $15.9 billion in 2003 to a low of $11.1 billion in 2014. From 2006 through '14, handle declined seven out of eight years. That makes any uptick noteworthy.
And the 2015 increase in handle comes while every other economic indicator in the sport was down: smaller purses (down 1.6 percent), fewer racing days (down 4.4 percent), fewer races (down 5.7 percent). So even with fewer opportunities to bet, more money was being wagered.
If you drill down further into the calendar and examine what happened after the Triple Crown – the residual Pharoah Effect, if you will – the bump is even more pronounced.
Fourth-quarter wagering in 2015 was up 2.4 percent over 2014, even with purses down 1.2 percent, racing days down 7.8 percent and races down 7.9 percent. December alone was a major year-over-year spike, with wagering up 8.1 percent. That came a month after Pharoah rode off into the sunset with a smashing victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
That Breeders' Cup Classic telecast on Halloween drew a 2.6 rating – highest for that event on NBC in 20 years. Still, there were more eyeballs watching Florida play Georgia in college football that day, in a game between two teams outside the top 10, than watching American Pharoah's last run.
Another number that matters within the industry: thoroughbred bloodstock sales are up. According to Jockey Club figures, yearlings in 2015 were sold for a gross of $437.8 million – the highest figure since 2008. The average auction price of a yearling was $65,600, which is the highest the Jockey Club lists in records that date back to 1981. Anecdotally, that suggests more people wanting to get into the ownership game, and willing to pay good money to do it.
The strong finish to 2015 has been followed by a brisk start to 2016. The increase in handle has kept increasing – it's up 3.1 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period in '15.
There also has been a spike at some tracks in claiming-level ownership interest. Syndicates of smaller investors in cheaper horses – the day-to-day lifeblood of the sport – are on the rise, according to Louisville-area trainers whose livelihood depends on them.
Another anecdotal indicator of the Pharoah bump: Churchill Downs said it had 50,809 online ticket applications for the 2015 Kentucky Oaks and Derby, and 64,784 applications for 2016.
"I think Pharoah brought so many new fans to the sport," Baffert said. "It's really good."
But are they sticking around for this year's Triple Crown? That's unclear.
According to a Yahoo Sports poll provided by YouGov, of nearly 3,700 American adults from late April, 26 percent watched at least one of last year's Triple Crown races. Of that group, only 64% say they are "somewhat" or "very likely" to follow horse racing in 2016, and only 27% say they are "very likely."
The Kentucky Derby's place as a rite of spring and staple of sporting Americana draws a built-in audience every year. We will see whether that audience adds a significant number of new converts Saturday. There is an undefeated favorite in Nyquist, but even that colt has not drawn the superhorse buzz that accompanied American Pharoah into the race last year.
"I think there will be a lot more people watching the Derby this year," Baffert said. "I really think whoever wins this Derby, they'll tune in for the Preakness [May 21]."
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Baffert is trying to win his fifth Derby with Mor Spirit, a hard-trying colt who was established as the sixth bettor choice at 12-1 Wednesday by Derby oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. But even as the connections at Barn 33 hope for another great day Saturday, the dominant emotion is nostalgia for the recent past.
Georgie Gonzalez, exercise rider in Baffert's racing operation, was wearing a snazzy American Pharoah Triple Crown jacket Wednesday morning. Bernie Schiappa, close friend of Baffert's, was wearing an American Pharoah hat. Baffert himself also was in an American Pharoah jacket.
The trainer went to Ashford Stud in the rolling bluegrass near Lexington earlier this week to visit with American Pharoah, feeding him carrots and walking the horse between his stallion duties in the breeding shed. Baffert has spent more time with the media talking about Pharoah than Mor Spirit, more time looking backward than forward.
"I was part of something really big in sports history," Baffert said.
History of that magnitude doesn't repeat itself often. Will the fans who flocked to American Pharoah still be there this year, or was their curiosity sated? Open the doors at Churchill, load the gates Saturday evening, and let's find out.

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