Peyton Manning preparing as if he will return

At this point it would be a surprise if Peyton Manning didn’t play in 2015.

There hasn’t been a report yet that he’s leaning toward retirement. Those close to him say they assume he’ll play another season for the Denver Broncos. He will reportedly soon start training with fitness guru Mackie Shilstone in New Orleans, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune, a clear sign he plans to come back. All that seems to be left now is an announcement.

And now we can start to wonder: What can we realistically expect from a soon-to-be 39-year-old Manning, and what can we expect from the Broncos with Manning leading them again?

Let’s get this out of the way first – the Broncos are better off with Manning, no matter if Manning is closer to his December, 2014 form than anything we saw in 2013. Too many teams have terrible quarterback situations, and we know next to nothing about backup Brock Osweiler. Even if Manning significantly declines, he's still better than most quarterbacks.

A lot has been said of new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak and how Manning might not be an ideal fit in his offense, but that’s just offseason chatter, too. Kubiak isn’t going to have Manning do anything he’s not adept at doing. Kubiak worked just fine in Houston with Matt Schaub, who isn’t mobile either.

But all of that doesn’t necessarily mean the Broncos should expect that Manning will be a top-five quarterback again next season.

You can’t blame Manning’s late-season collapse entirely on a quad injury suffered against San Diego; he didn’t break 180 yards in either of the two games before that injury. It was clear before the Chargers game that his arm strength had significantly declined. Manning hasn’t taken a huge beating in his career – he’s an expert at avoiding sacks – but he does have multiple neck surgeries that caused him to miss a season. That he didn't look the same throwing the ball late last season shouldn’t be a huge shock.

Manning is battling history, as well. Brett Favre had the gold standard of seasons for a quarterback who was 39 or older, with a 107.2 rating with the Vikings in 2009. He’s the only quarterback who was at least 39, had more than 200 attempts and had a rating over 100, according to pro-football-reference.com. Warren Moon (39 years old, 1995) is second with 91.5. Nobody else who was 39 or older had a rating over 83.7. Only 13 quarterbacks that old even had 200 attempts in a season. Manning turns 39 in March. If he has his fourth season in a row with a rating above 100, he'll be joining a very small group.

The Broncos' optimism, the reason general manager John Elway made it clear right away that Denver wanted Manning back in 2015, comes from last September and October, when Manning had 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. His unbelievable 2013 season, probably the best an NFL quarterback has ever had, isn’t that long ago. The Broncos can chalk up the second half of 2014 to asking a 38-year-old to carry too much of the offense. Maybe with a great running game (ask Justin Forsett or Arian Foster how good Kubiak is at devising a run game) and a realistic workload, Manning can be efficient and the Broncos can be contenders again. Especially if they can retain Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas, who can become free agents. Denver's roster was loaded last season, and managing Manning right could put them right back in the hunt in the AFC. But it looks like Manning’s waffling on returning for 2015 was the result of a late-season slump and/or a really tough playoff loss to the Indianapolis Colts. All we’re waiting for now is the official announcement that he’ll be back. Now we can start to wonder if we’ll see Manning play close to a level we're used to seeing from him.