Maybe we need to rethink the Denver Broncos-Colin Kaepernick saga. The Broncos aren't showing many signs that they're really all that into Kaepernick as their next quarterback.
The Broncos, who need a starting quarterback for this season, are asking Kaepernick to take a pay cut to $7 million this year and $7 million next year to facilitate a trade, according to Mindi Bach of CSN Bay Area. Kaepernick's San Francisco 49ers contract calls for him to make salaries of $11.9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million next season. So Denver is asking Kaepernick to give up $12.9 million in base salary the next two years, and Bach reported he might be giving up as much as $16.2 million the next two years, when you count other incentives.
Does that sound like a request from a team that is sold on Kaepernick as its answer at quarterback?
That request in the second year is important. We already knew the Broncos asked for a pay cut to $7 million for 2016. Given Denver's salary-cap issues this year, that makes sense. Although, if the Broncos loved Kaepernick and thought he was the same player he was in 2012 and 2013, they'd make his $11.9 million salary work under the cap — that's a modest investment for a good starting quarterback. But asking him in advance to cut his pay to $7 million for 2017, when there's more than enough time to rework the cap, seems to tell another story. Chase Daniel just signed on with the Philadelphia Eagles at $7 million a year to be their backup. Offering Kaepernick the same salary seems to indicate Broncos general manager John Elway isn't head over heels for him.
There could be things beneath the surface that clear up the situation. Perhaps the Broncos are making it worth Kaepernick's time with more guarantees or a ton of incentives, or there's something in the final years of a reworked deal that would be beneficial to Kaepernick. But if the offer were that good, Kaepernick wouldn't still be in the Bay Area working out with the 49ers. Asking for big pay cuts is also not unprecedented for Elway, who asked Peyton Manning last year to take a huge salary reduction before both sides settled on a $4 million cut. And there's always the possibility the 49ers pay some of Kaepernick's salary to make a trade happen (and it would be one of the saddest moments in NFL in a long time if the 49ers pay to fix Elway's quarterback problem).
But if you take this all at face value, Denver's extreme pay cut request to Kaepernick indicates they are fine if they get him at a price that high-end backup quarterbacks can now command, and they're also fine if it doesn't work out.
Elway is in a unique spot because he doesn't need to make a desperation move. Nobody in the NFL has more job security, especially after the Super Bowl 50 win. Elway can run out Mark Sanchez as Denver's starter on opening day, and have Sanchez be a placeholder for a drafted rookie who will take the reigns at some point, and people in Denver won't even pause building a statue for Elway, no matter the results. So if Elway truly doesn't love Kaepernick, he doesn't need to take on his salary as a desperate attempt to save his job. And, if you look at everything that has happened the past few weeks, he doesn't seem to truly love Kaepernick. If he did, odds are Kaepernick would be with the Broncos right now.
The deal could still happen. The 49ers could pay some of the salary. Kaepernick could have a change of heart and accept a pay cut of some kind. Elway could get antsy and back off the pay cut. There's still plenty of time, and with nobody else seemingly interested in Kaepernick, this could all just be standard negotiating tactics. But once you hear that the Broncos asked that Kaepernick take a pay cut of somewhere between $12.9 million and $16.2 million over the next two years, it's worth asking: How bad do they really want him?
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